Over the past decade, Cape form has worked out far better than Jhb form in the July - for what it's worth. Remberering the dead heat, of the 11 winners of the last ten July's only three had ever raced in Jhb previously, the other eight all had Cape form to their name. This doesn't mean that Igugu can't win, and let's not forget that the Drill Hall runner-up yesterday had been racing in Gauteng without a great deal of success, but with no disrespect to anybody the form of races like the Summer Cup and Champions Challenge is generally worth less than a Zim dollar in the July. In part this is due to the penalty which the winners get for winning those races, but even so they are a pale imitation of races like the July and the Met.
Even MDK, wherever his base happens to be, found it extremely hard during the Cape season, and although he won the Queen's Plate (with an ex-Cape horse), he spent more time in the number 2 and 3 boxes than in the winner's enclosure this past summer. And please don't tell me that he didn't run his best horses!
Provincialism is a pointless debate, but from a form analysis point of view you are bucking current trends if you look to Gauteng form for your July winner. Of course horses with Joburg form can and will still win the July in future, but these days they are in a minority.
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