hibernia Wrote:
> Very Bad draw for Twice Over a bit deja vu from
> last year(td) but it looks a weaker race than last
> year
THE Dubai World Cup used to rank up with the Arc and the Breeders' Cup Classic as a race almost guaranteed to throw up a superstar, but the world's richest race has lost some of its shine in recent years.
A super-race from the outset, the World Cup built its success on two key groups: American dirt champions and an outstanding Godolphin team. But those two elements have been lacking of late.
Looking back to the first five years of the race, champions like Cigar and Silver Charm added American muscle to a race supported by an embarrassingly strong Sheikh Mohammed-owned contingent, including Halling (127), Singspiel (130), Swain (133), Daylami (138) and the great Dubai Millennium (139).
Since then the Dubai outfit have retrained their aspirations on America and, whether related or not, they have subsequently fielded a much weaker team in the World Cup, headed in the last three years by the lesser lights of Mastery (119), My Indy (117) and Jalil (120).
This year they rely on 10-1 shot Poet's Voice (peak 123), who finished second to Wigmore Hall in his prep in the Jebel Hatta with an RPR of 116.
In addition to the weaker 'home' team, the World Cup's switch away from a dirt surface last year has hardly boosted the American involvement – headed for the past two years by turf specialist Gio Ponti.
There could be other factors at play, since Zenyatta and Blame have now retired and Summer Bird got injured before last year's race, but it is hard to downplay the effect of the switch to a Tapeta surface.
With a surface war raging in America, safety arguments and maintenance concerns have been raised by both the dirt and synthetics camps, polarising opinion. But the most influential factor for the dirt brigade is that for decades Americans have been breeding and training their horses to be effective on dirt and by changing to synthetics all of that history and heritage wouldunravel.
The same would be true in Europe. If all tracks were switched to dirt then all the bloodlines that had dominated the Classic for years would suddenly become second rate and breeding focus would have to change towards a dirt specialism. The same goes for race planning and training techniques.
The fact is that dirt and turf horses have become honed at two very different disciplines and neither group can afford to throw it all away for the luxury of racing ona globally accepted, uniform surface.
Some would say that Tapeta and its ilk are the solution to the problem, as they allow a level(-ish) playing field, but in the end it is all down to individuals and ifa trainer or owner takes a dislike to a surface, they are not going to run on it.
There were no dirt specialists involved in last year's Dubai World Cup, which yielded the lowest-rated winner in Gloria De Campeao (122), and this year Fly Down is the only dirt challenger.
In terms of quality, the one upside to the switch is that the Meydan feature has managed to slightly up the standards of its turf stars this year, with big names like Twice Over (127) and Cape Blanco (127) booked to take their chance on Saturday.
They are two of the highest-rated turf performers (of those not owned by Sheikh Mohammed) in the history of the race to take their chance and it may be that their running is a beacon ofhope for the future of the World Cup, particularly with Ballydoyle back in Dubai for the first time since 2005.
The early renewals were more often than not secured by a 130+ horse, but 127 should prove enough on Saturday and if eitherruns to their best they should win.
Of the two it is easy to see Twice Over running a huge race after the way he dismissed his opponents in round three of the Al Maktoum Challenge. He's favourite and he should be.
Traditionally the Dubai World Cup marks the start of the World Class year, but the big guns have been out early this season.
Last year's champion sprinter and leading distaffer Black Caviar heads the RPR rankings for 2011 with a 133 for her Newmarket Handicap success – a figure good enough to finish the year as champion in five of the last ten seasons.
Second spot is currently shared by J J The Jet Plane (124), for his weight-carrying success at Meydan on Super Thursday, and Japan's Victoire Pisa, who was a class apart from his Nakayama Kinen rivals last month.
Breeders' Cup Sprint hero Big Drama currently leads the way on the dirt list with a 123 for his four-length success in the Mr Prospector Stakes, while Twice Over (123) tops the all-weather standings after stamping his authority on the final round of the AlMaktoum Challenge.
It is interesting to note that the all-weather list is dominated by Meydan races this year, with former Pro-Ride track Santa Anita reverting to conventional dirt in December.
At this stage last year Santa Anita was responsible for the four best ratings achieved on synthetics, but this year the top five positions have all gone to horses who featured in the three legs of the Al Maktoum Challenge.
In fact, the whole all-weather list is populated by performances at Meydan, which seems now to be out on its own in the world of top-class racing.
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