I'M CURIOUS

Being a small time punter for many years, and who loves the game, and likes nothing better than studying form trying to find that elusive value bet at decent odds which occasionally arrives, I'm curious. On 18 Sept a horse called Nicodemus won at TFI over 1450m carrying 55.5. According to Computaform the trainer B BOTES was then questioned after the race.Why would that be ? Might it be because the horse won at 16/1 after losing by 13 lengths at it's previous start ? If that is so then I think it is absolute rubbish.If it was for anything else I apologise. The fact is, in it's previous run it raced over 1800m [ with Delpech up so they must have liked it's chances a bit incl the jock ] it faded dismally to finish 13 lengths behind the winner but was more than 4 lengths ahead of the field at the 1400 mark. You don't have to be a genius let alone a stipe to recognize that in his next run over 1450 in a similarly moderate field and carrying less weight, the horse had to have a decent chance.The only surprise for me was it's price. Question the trainer ?? In my opinion he should have been congratulated for selecting the 1450m for this horses next run while the horse was obviously still ready. Racing must be policed, no question, but police must be questioned too. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm still curious.

I agree that sometimes there might be a tendency to assume that anything that wins at a big price must have "improved" out of the blue. Your reading of the two races is quite correct, Nicodemus didn't stay 1800m with blinkers on and obviously enjoyed the drop back to 1450m. However, I imagine that part of the reason why the trainer was quetiionned was to allow him to put that very fact on record. Chrism, not everybody reads races as well as you obviously do and there and although I don't have that Stipes report to hand right now I'd bet a week's pay that Botes' explanation was pretty much on the lines of what you deduced by yourself.

However, like I say, there are those who need to have these things pointed out to them, and in fairness many times the explanation which is given by a trainer in these circumstances is based on something which we could not have known. The horse missed a lot of work before its last start because of bad weather, they changed the bit, the horse was found to be running a high temperature the day after its last bad run, etc etc. There is nothing underhand or untoward about Botes being asked for a reason why a horse goes from getting beaten 13 lengths to winning a race of a similar class in quick succession. I guess the Stipes feel they owe it to the public, and they're not wrong, even when the explanation may already have seemed apparent to some of us. And to those punters who worked it out before the event and backed Nicodemus at a big price to win the 1450m race - well done to you. Your parents and your teachers were right after all - it pays to do your homework.

THE STIPENDIARY STEWARDS REPORTED:

a) NICODEMUS, the winner (R Simons). Selected for the taking of specimens for analysis. Trainer B D Botes advised (LA). Raced with its tongue tied down (declared 17 September 2010 / 16H06).

Trainer Botes was questioned regarding this geldings apparent improved performance. He explained to the Board that in its previous run, NICODEMUS pulled hard in the early stages and had subsequently compounded. Today, Jockey Simons settled the horse which had accounted for the improvement. The Stipendiary Board has adjourned to view NICODEMUS’s previous run.

@Chrism & hibernia:

You are correct, even as a small punter!

In the old days, trainers often entered a horse to run over 1600m (8 furlongs) or longer. The horse would dash out to the front, only to compound after the 2 furlong.
The next run would be over 5 or 6 (even 7) furlongs, the horse sent to the front (often with a claiming appie), and it would win...at long odds! Therefore, I would watch for such horses/trainers.

A trainer called PL Carbonel was highly succesful with such tactics, besides a few others (like Hammond & Goss). Not current Goss!

Our 'bible' then used to be 'And...... aw-way they go!' Duff's Turf Guide (forerunner of the Computerform) where we tracked horses upto and from the 2-4 furlong.

Thank you for your indepth reply Magic, position clearer now. Thank's also to hibernia and Umlilo.

And then the silly bugger misses the break on Satueday