Greyville Turf 02/04

Back to today , will be following the jhb form and going for Labrausco in the first

An interesting card today.
race 1 With the favourite scratched now wide open.
Race 2 Beyound the Boundary held his own in CT during the season and duly won his first start back. Steps back up to the 1800m, and although all 3 of his wins have come over 1400m he is effective this trip. he is the one to beat but quite a skinny price and very open if he fails.
Race 3 Scratched up and priced a boat race between Rock Fall and Rise, but I'm including Johnny's Hope as Fourie is riding at the top of his game, and the two bottom weights are getting lumps pf weight over a trip and if one of them is allowed to skip clear could cause an upset..
Race 4 No selection
race 5 Time Fo orchids is the class filly, but the 1000m may be a bit sharp. Aunty Lizzie is very speedy. Dangers are Warship, princess Tea and Amarandi.
race 6 Canadian Summer is top class but has to give weight away. Ameena if fit is weighted to win. Miss Cool must be included as she is match fit in case the two big guns need the run.
race 7 Cousin Casey is a top horse but has a tough task against Jimmy Don at the weights. They should fight it out, but if you are looking for spooks, then Strawberry Bear, Imposing and Captain Casey are next best and should fill the quartet.
race 8 Very open. Princekresh and Intrepid have come down in the ratings and down in class. Chara Sands, Music is Life and Phinda Mzala are capable.

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote:

Frodo wrote:

I see Jimmy Don has shortened to a more realistic price - for me he will beat the Cousin at the weights and the distance

Using Anfields Rocket as the common denominator, hard to see Jimmy Don beat Cousin Casey. CC finished 7.7 lengths ahead of AR in the Cape Guineas at level weights. AR beat JD by 1.0 length at level weights in the WSB SA Classic. Whilst horses don't run on paper, the numbers would suggest JD needs more than a 6.0kg swing to beat CC.

Unbeaten over the distance and 2/2 at the course.

\

Opinions .... I'm not convinced about the Cape Guineas run - for me Anfield's Rocket ran below form - and there are others in the race who is probably more tuned up - so for me the Cousin is too short at odds on - anyway let's see this afternoon

I don't play Natal racing anymore, so I didn't have a clue what was running today, but having had a quick squizz at the race now I must say that I agree with you that the 3-1 that was available about Jimmy Don was too big (was it even bigger?).

For me it's interesting that he ran so well over 1800m last time, in a race where they went hard early and where the first three past the post were closers. Being by Pathfork out of a Joshua Dancer mare, I would have thought that an 1800m at Turffies off a hot pace would have really tested his stamina. The 5,5kgs he receives from Cousin Casey is a lot as he's shown in that last start that he's a Grade 1 horse, so he has to be 1st choice for me.

However, I have huge respect for Cousin Casey despite the weight he has to give. He has the advantage of having won 3 times at this course already and although he is probably going to be best over 1600m (although in terms of ratings he equalled his best over the 2000m last time), 1400m is probably still not going to catch him out, unless there really is no pace on. I must say though, I wouldn't be backing him at odds on.

I don't think I'll get involved here, but for me it's either you're backing Jimmy Don or staying out. I wouldn't be backing Cousin Casey at a short price with him having to give the weight away.

Labrausco... Looks the one to beat for me...

Tough game this... glad I stayed out.

CHARA SANDS - Go Rachel !

Let the hooves do the galloping through the computaform