Turffontein 14/11/2020

Frodo wrote: Another day where the hotties seem hard to beat - thoughts:

R1: Sea Virescent should prove very hard to beat

R2: Another hottie the talk of the town, should win, but ridiculous odds imo

R3: Everything points to Royal Wulff, but he does seem to find something to beat him; for me I think Courtroom Magic could give him a run if he finds a nice position from a wide draw; Shak Akbar can still improve lots; all the best to Dave & Zoro with Humble Tune

R4: For me, I think both Cockney Pride and Pure State are too high in the ratings, but even taken that into account, only the 3 yr old Kingsley's Heart can make them run at the weights; I'm including all 3 in the P6

R5: Cirillo the obvious one, but not a lot between him, Zouaves and Approach Control at the weights - so a lot would depend if Cirillo is being prepped for bigger fish, as imo he would need to be at his best to hold off the other two; Frosted Gold also not out of it but does come back from a rest and not an ideal draw; I do think Running Brave should need this (but I never catch that filly right); best roughie imo is Full Mast, while Captain Aldo can also find a place over his favorite track and trip

R6: Very interesting sprint where they are going to go very quick; as such it may be one sitting just off the pace who can pick them up in the closing stages; that being said, it is certainly not easy to predict which one that would be; Singforafa the right one on ratings and is one of those who is going to go hell for leather from the jump; she holds True to Life, who imo will get caught too far out of her ground; the 3 yr olds get weight, but only the race will show if that will be enough to trouble the older fillies; I think even Sheer Talent and Winter Watch are not completely out of it and I am loading up - while banking Singforafa in a smaller P6

R7: Set weights, which make some of these not well weighted; Victoria Paige well weighted, but not a great run in the Charity Mile - still looks the right one; interesting though that Lyle takes the ride on the stable mate (although he might have had top put up over-weight in VP); I do think Seven Patriots will be right there and dark horse is the filly Snow Palace, who is hard to predict, but does hold VP on the run behind Running Brave

R8: Second Base good win last time when drawn wide; seems to have find the right field to follow up; for me the danger is Major Return, while Follow My Path keeps dropping in the ratings and does also get another 2.5 kgs off his back courtesy of the apprentice, so could place here; Nebraas may find this too short, as may Apollo Robins (who also races in steels - so may need the run as well)

R9: The race that will make or break my day; on her run in the Paddock Stakes, Castellano should walk this - may not be 100% yet on her 2nd run up here, but for me should still take a lot of beating; big place value imo is Anatura; gets heaps of weight (now ridden by an apprentice) from Castellano and the 3yr old Afternoon Tea; may have found the 2000 too far last time and looks huge value to me an a competitive race if one takes Castellano out

Enjoy