The influence of inside info/graft

Muhtiman
Platinum Member
Posts: 8932
Thanks: 1014

Re: The influence of inside info/graft

7 years 8 months ago

Adams wrote:
I have learned to ignore inside information , unless it confirms my own analysis.

One of the problems with insiide info is that insiders are only human just like all of us, they also develop bias, and they can become emotionally over-invested in a horse, over-rating it's potential - we can see that daily in the form card with some horses rushed into million rand stakes races and then ultimately coming back to earth.

Of late for some reason, (since joining ABC) i had started to be influenced by the tote - against years of experience which taught me to bet against first-timers, they have less than 30% srike rate, bet against favourites they have less than 30% strike rate - this cost me many value bets - which normally are the lifeblood of any betting activity.

So the oage old advice is to study the form yourself, make your own selections, and then use any inside information to validate or disqualify your own selection, use the tote or boards in the same way -- only to validate or disqualify your own selections - never make a selection based on inside information, tote or odds boards.

.....in the past there were books written on finding horses that were secretly supported through betting anomalies on tote will pays.... as then the tote was correctly supported by a bigger percentage of punters.....I find that because of smaller pools, open bet and the ease that bets can be cancelled or reversed has made our tote extremely fickle and hard to read.....the same goes for bookie betting moves that are sometimes radical to the extreme....in the old days horses would shorten if real money was wagered.....these days a horse shortens because of who is wagering and not how much is being wagered.....

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

mr hawaii
Platinum Member
Posts: 20065
Thanks: 2653

Re: The influence of inside info/graft

7 years 8 months ago

#691499

I will never forget a story related by a now retired editor of a major racing publication - A certain horse was fav for a race - The editor approached the trainer and asked if he could have a bet - The trainer said no - "Come to the gallops in the morning and I''ll show you why" - Day of the gallop is the day before the race to be run - He get's there and the trainer makes the jock take the horse around Turffs as hard as he can - Horse comes back drenched and exhausted - No way it will win now - Result a day later the horse decided to put the hard work behind him and wins and the stable out as they backed the second string

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

oscar
Platinum Member
Posts: 4128
Thanks: 327

Re: The influence of inside info/graft

7 years 8 months ago - 7 years 8 months ago

#691501

Good thread...personally nothing beats looking at the form and the gut feel one gets which is very rare about a horse that you like to win a race.

Sometimes I will get a tip from one of my trainers which is rare and they 95% of the time come in.

Two types of punters imo, 1. those that like to have a bet however big/small on most races plus play exotics most days and 2. those that study, wait for a good tip and have a good bet. From what Ive read on the site the bookies seem to cut the amount the latter are allowed to bet however in my experience Hollywood Bets are a magnificent operation, I have backed rugby draws a few times and they have never given me a problem, but then I never draw money out of a bookie account.

My last input into this is that taking odds of anything less that 5/1 about a horse is honestly for me not viable nor sustainable.

Last edit: 7 years 8 months ago by oscar.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Titch
Platinum Member
Posts: 9397
Thanks: 366

Re: The influence of inside info/graft

7 years 8 months ago - 7 years 8 months ago

#691505

If racing was as bent as a lot of folk seem to believe then a lot more of the "Graft" horses would be winning and a vast majority trainers would be long gone and relaxing in the South of France instead of leaving home for stables at 4am 7 days a week

Give everything but up!

Last edit: 7 years 8 months ago by Titch.

The following user(s) said Thank You: Deeno

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

fingers
Elite Member
Posts: 1479
Thanks: 208

Re: The influence of inside info/graft

7 years 8 months ago

#691515

mr hawaii wrote: I will never forget a story related by a now retired editor of a major racing publication - A certain horse was fav for a race - The editor approached the trainer and asked if he could have a bet - The trainer said no - "Come to the gallops in the morning and I''ll show you why" - Day of the gallop is the day before the race to be run - He get's there and the trainer makes the jock take the horse around Turffs as hard as he can - Horse comes back drenched and exhausted - No way it will win now - Result a day later the horse decided to put the hard work behind him and wins and the stable out as they backed the second string

About 1980 Nick van Tonder trained a horse for some Joburg bookie (forget the name)
Splendid Gem won its maiden on its coconut, backed off the boards
Some weeks later, 2nd run, Nick told him nothing can beat it – will win on the bit.
Owner didn't want to know – he wanted to lay it. Morning of the race poor old Nick had to gallop the horse 10F with bookie in attendance.
Nick told me he still thinks the horse will win.
Drifted from evens to 5/1 in no time at time of race, with this palooka running around in the ring trying to lay his horse Started 10/1 and won easing up by 3 lengths.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.