Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
- Mac
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Re: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago - 7 years 9 months ago
[quote=
Example Burning question:
1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win.[/quote]
Q1
Two runs or less is the biggest probability. The weighting is on my laptop.
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Example Burning question:
1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win.[/quote]
Q1
Two runs or less is the biggest probability. The weighting is on my laptop.
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Last edit: 7 years 9 months ago by Mac.
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- Adams
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Re: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago
2nd Run after a rest could be a bad thing if the horse came out firing, right distance and track and went down in a tough battle by a short head.... could regress right back to the point where it needed to be rested before....but that could apply to any horse involved in a peak effort ---like marinarescoe after the July

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- Mac
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Re: Re:Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago
Q2
Three runs or less has the highest probability.
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Three runs or less has the highest probability.
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Re: Re:Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago
Q3 gin strikes
No effect
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No effect
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- Mac
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Re: Re:Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago
Q4 modified to races which have only one filly/mare
No effect
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No effect
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- Mac
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Re: Re:Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago
Q5 1st, 2nd, 3rd runs after rest
All have no effect
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All have no effect
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Re: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago - 7 years 9 months ago
Q6 Horses for courses
Analysis in progress
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Analysis in progress
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Last edit: 7 years 9 months ago by Mac.
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- Mac
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Re: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago - 7 years 9 months ago
Analyses compares the hit rate of the variable to the proportional representation of the population of that variable E.g., if 80% of races are won by bays but if 80% of the population are bays then the ratio = 1 which has no effect.
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Last edit: 7 years 9 months ago by Mac.
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- Mac
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Re: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago - 7 years 9 months ago
Deleted, shld have been an edit not a quote.
Last edit: 7 years 9 months ago by Mac.
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- Over the Air
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Re: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago
Zimmer it is said that there are no "dumb" questions in life. When it comes to horseracing I disagree. People spend their lives analysing form. They find to their detriment that the only consistency they find is contained in the first 4 letters of analyse.
Horse racing is not an exact science. There are no accurate algorithms that can be inserted into equations to determine winners. 99.9% of the time the reason for this is human interference/involvement. To perfectly illustrate my point, following the money when the formbook disagrees, is far more "accurate" than any analysis can be. Ask Ziets, its the key to Kimberley form.
Horse racing is not an exact science. There are no accurate algorithms that can be inserted into equations to determine winners. 99.9% of the time the reason for this is human interference/involvement. To perfectly illustrate my point, following the money when the formbook disagrees, is far more "accurate" than any analysis can be. Ask Ziets, its the key to Kimberley form.
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- Andycap
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Re: Re:RE: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months agoLets see today at the Vaal...Zimmerman wrote: I was wondering if it would be acceptable/appropriate if people could assist me (and maybe some other punters - hopefully its not only me who was wondering about these questions) with some burning questions i have regarding form and general advice.
Just some background, i am not a newbie to horseracing trying to learn everything there is on this site. But i do find that there are many aspects that i dont know about and may help me during form studying.
Example Burning question:
1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win, and in the same veign, what is your criteria for that? I.e is there a certain MR race that guides you, perhaps in a MR 70 after a Maiden win he may struggle but in a Mr 66 perhaps not?
If they are really stupid questions, or if the site doesnt allow this, please dont hesitate to say so and i will cease.
Race 3
ALWAHSH first time winner stepping right up into a MR 84....
Race 5
CHAPATI 8 runs to win his Mdn...
BTAXTON took only 2 runs to win....
Who will follow on?
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Do not follow where the path may lead.
Go to where there is no path.....
AND LEAVE A TRAIL
Go to where there is no path.....
AND LEAVE A TRAIL
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- Frodo
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Re: Thread for "dumb/burning questions"
7 years 9 months ago - 7 years 9 months ago
At the risk of exposing my limited knowledge, I'll have a go at some of these ....
1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win, and in the same veign, what is your criteria for that? I.e is there a certain MR race that guides you, perhaps in a MR 70 after a Maiden win he may struggle but in a Mr 66 perhaps not?
Adams tells you there is a 20% chance of a runner winning a maiden following up in it's next start ; Mac informs us that it depends on the 'class' of horse; i.e the highest probability (and maybe Mac can let us know what the probability is) is when the horse has had 3 runs or less.
I have no stats on this, my gut feel is that Adams' 20% might not be too far off; I'm wondering though how knowing this would help - should one (when trying to identify the winner) just blatantly ignore a horse that has won its maiden in its previous start, as on average one would be correct around 80% of the time? ; if one combines this with Mac's stats, maybe one will only ignore it if it has had more than 3 runs ?
I don't think anyone has stats that shows the % of winners split by the class (e.g. MR 70) of the 'next' race - would be interesting to know, but again I'm not sure how one would practically apply this knowledge ?
1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win, and in the same veign, what is your criteria for that? I.e is there a certain MR race that guides you, perhaps in a MR 70 after a Maiden win he may struggle but in a Mr 66 perhaps not?
Adams tells you there is a 20% chance of a runner winning a maiden following up in it's next start ; Mac informs us that it depends on the 'class' of horse; i.e the highest probability (and maybe Mac can let us know what the probability is) is when the horse has had 3 runs or less.
I have no stats on this, my gut feel is that Adams' 20% might not be too far off; I'm wondering though how knowing this would help - should one (when trying to identify the winner) just blatantly ignore a horse that has won its maiden in its previous start, as on average one would be correct around 80% of the time? ; if one combines this with Mac's stats, maybe one will only ignore it if it has had more than 3 runs ?
I don't think anyone has stats that shows the % of winners split by the class (e.g. MR 70) of the 'next' race - would be interesting to know, but again I'm not sure how one would practically apply this knowledge ?
Last edit: 7 years 9 months ago by Frodo.
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