Thread for "dumb/burning questions"

[quote=

Example Burning question:
1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win.[/quote]
Q1
Two runs or less is the biggest probability. The weighting is on my laptop.



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2nd Run after a rest could be a bad thing if the horse came out firing, right distance and track and went down in a tough battle by a short head.... could regress right back to the point where it needed to be rested before....but that could apply to any horse involved in a peak effort ---like marinarescoe after the July

Q2
Three runs or less has the highest probability.


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Q3 gin strikes
No effect


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Q4 modified to races which have only one filly/mare
No effect


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Q5 1st, 2nd, 3rd runs after rest
All have no effect


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Q6 Horses for courses
Analysis in progress


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Analyses compares the hit rate of the variable to the proportional representation of the population of that variable E.g., if 80% of races are won by bays but if 80% of the population are bays then the ratio = 1 which has no effect.


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Deleted, shld have been an edit not a quote.

Zimmer it is said that there are no "dumb" questions in life. When it comes to horseracing I disagree. People spend their lives analysing form. They find to their detriment that the only consistency they find is contained in the first 4 letters of analyse.

Horse racing is not an exact science. There are no accurate algorithms that can be inserted into equations to determine winners. 99.9% of the time the reason for this is human interference/involvement. To perfectly illustrate my point, following the money when the formbook disagrees, is far more "accurate" than any analysis can be. Ask Ziets, its the key to Kimberley form.

Zimmerman wrote: I was wondering if it would be acceptable/appropriate if people could assist me (and maybe some other punters - hopefully its not only me who was wondering about these questions) with some burning questions i have regarding form and general advice.

Just some background, i am not a newbie to horseracing trying to learn everything there is on this site. But i do find that there are many aspects that i dont know about and may help me during form studying.

Example Burning question:
1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win, and in the same veign, what is your criteria for that? I.e is there a certain MR race that guides you, perhaps in a MR 70 after a Maiden win he may struggle but in a Mr 66 perhaps not?

If they are really stupid questions, or if the site doesnt allow this, please dont hesitate to say so and i will cease.

Lets see today at the Vaal...

Race 3
ALWAHSH first time winner stepping right up into a MR 84....

Race 5
CHAPATI 8 runs to win his Mdn...
BTAXTON took only 2 runs to win....

Who will follow on?

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At the risk of exposing my limited knowledge, I'll have a go at some of these ....

1. How likely would you say is it that a maiden will follow up the next run with a win, and in the same veign, what is your criteria for that? I.e is there a certain MR race that guides you, perhaps in a MR 70 after a Maiden win he may struggle but in a Mr 66 perhaps not?

Adams tells you there is a 20% chance of a runner winning a maiden following up in it's next start ; Mac informs us that it depends on the 'class' of horse; i.e the highest probability (and maybe Mac can let us know what the probability is) is when the horse has had 3 runs or less.

I have no stats on this, my gut feel is that Adams' 20% might not be too far off; I'm wondering though how knowing this would help - should one (when trying to identify the winner) just blatantly ignore a horse that has won its maiden in its previous start, as on average one would be correct around 80% of the time? ; if one combines this with Mac's stats, maybe one will only ignore it if it has had more than 3 runs ?

I don't think anyone has stats that shows the % of winners split by the class (e.g. MR 70) of the 'next' race - would be interesting to know, but again I'm not sure how one would practically apply this knowledge ?