Zietsman Oosthuizen wrote:
Frodo wrote: Makes sense, Ziets..... but I thought Gold Standard was at 115; if he is at 108, the theory that Al Sahem and Edict of Nantes are 'thrown in' does not hold water....
He was a 108 coming into this race and i think he ran to about that also.
Alsahem and EON is not thrown in , they just in front but have more possible improvement to come .
Al sahem i think will win
I agree on the Gold Standard rating of 108 and that the 3 yo' are not "slung in" but rather reasonably weighted.
I think all of them are maturing well and have big chances , not weighted out of it as in some years.
The problem with the perceived "well in, 3yo" ratings is that it's based on 1 performance of 1 3yo in the met.
The last 2 years LE and CA have finished second and third to horses that have run massively above their best ratings according to the Met result.These 2 have proven they are exceptional milers, and probably both been well under their best ratings over the 2000m .I think both the Met Winners have been given too high a rating based on an assumption that the 2 above mentioned ran close to their mile ratings. Both were exported so won't be able to prove this but Smart Call has probably run closer to her pre Met ratings than her Post Met rating in the Uk so far.
So while I do expect the 3yo crop to be competitive here, and are capable of further improvement, I think the well weighted 4yos are "better in" than expected.
Topic Author
