Hollywood`s Durban July Antepost

Bokked wrote: The real news here is the 175% overround

Oh to be a bookie in South Africa!

And it gets better when supplemented horses get added in at short odds. :ohmy:

I haven't seen one bookie state that this antepost market if fixed to these runners only like some of them did in the past.

Bookmaking websites should display the percentages of the field on offer.
If the gambling board were serious about protecting punters, they would enforce this.

naresh wrote:

The missing link wrote:

Frodo wrote:

pirates wrote: if he wins the greyville 1900 he gets an automatic place in the july

Didn't realize it was still the case .... so then Master Switch (and even maybe Go Direct - not a July entry at present) looks very nice Ante-Post value, as the trainer stated before their last runs that he was looking to run them both in the 1900 :huh:

Master switch @40/1 some places my bet. Woodruff said he'll be using the 1900 to sneak him in with a low weight

Master Switch is merit rated 101 and at the moment is carded to carry 53kg, the minimum weight of a 4yo colt and is under sufferance of 0.5kg as Captain America (MR 116) is the top weight if it runs. If it wins the Greyville 1900 it will pick up at least 4 to 6 points or more and it will therefore have a minimum rating of 105 thereafter. It will then carry at least 54.5kgs to 55.5kgs or more. If it runs second it can pick up at most 5 points and third 3 points.

naresh the conditions of the betting world 1900 state that the winner of the race can only pick up a penalty of up to a max of 6 pounds and that there will BE NO RATING INCREASE for placed horses ..the connections of the winner and placed horses can request an increase but seeing that the winner is guaranteed a run and that the july is by invitation and not by ratings i cant see this happening

Thank you Pirates. I was using the Grade 2 handicapping guidelines that came into effect last year. So just to clarify that most of or if not all these Benchmark Races the most penalty you can pick up is 6 points if you win and nothing if you place unless you request it. I see on the Greyville 1900m day there is a Pinnacle Plate over 1600m which could be interesting.

ruffian wrote: Bookmaking websites should display the percentages of the field on offer.
If the gambling board were serious about protecting punters, they would enforce this.

what gives you the impression that the gambling board protects punters?

Bokked wrote: The real news here is the 175% overround

Oh to be a bookie in South Africa!

Yip some of the fancied runners are priced up too short imo - leading to the big 'overround' .... BUT imo the secret to Ante-Post betting is to find the horse(s) that are reasonably certain to make the final field which are priced up at 'longer' odds .... and that's where personal fancies can yield nice odds .... negating to some extent the 'overround' percentage....

So where do we find these 'bargains' ?

For me personally ..... using Ante-Post odds currently on offer from Hollywood....

The only 3 yr old colt I'd consider is Heavenly Blue who was impressive when winning the SA Classic, but his current Ante-Post odds of 12.5/1 does not make him a 'bargain'.

Quite a few of the 3 yr old fillies are worth a second look- the picture will of course be much clearer after the Woolavington - for now I think the 'bargains' are Bi-Pot (50/1) and Belle Rose (100/1) - but of course neither of those are guaranteed a run at this stage

The older horses that will probably come into the race with reasonable weights include It's My Turn (10/1), Black Arthur (10/1) - but those odds really look skinny; others that look better value are Saratoga Dancer (25/1), Master Switch (25/1) and possibly Ten Gun Salute (40/1) - not really odds that would make me rush to back them at this stage - but of these I prefer Master Switch

So I can't find too many 'bargains' at this stage

Maybe the first 3 MDK favs today act Heavenly Blue would give you a nice ante post bet?

brave backing heavenly blue as he takes time to unwind on the testing turfontein track and is a backmarker ..try that at champs de graveville with 17 other runners and lets see how he does ..cast your mind back to legal eagle who carried 54kg with anton up and he ran 5th ....his record subsequently shows up how far he should have won that race by with all things being fair and equal...i think the question that you need to ask yourself is how much shorter will these horses actually trade on the day compared to the price you are taking now and obviously you are guaranteed a run plus the horse form will be complete ..

I see master switch is not on the ctc list

On HOLLYWOOD BETS PAGODA OPENED 200/1 THEN WENT 50/1 NOW 40/1 :whistle:

Biggie626 wrote: On HOLLYWOOD BETS PAGODA OPENED 200/1 THEN WENT 50/1 NOW 40/1 :whistle:

The SA Derby should give us a better idea of where they stand - but on a line through Amsterdam, there does not appear to be much between Pagoda and Furiosa, while Al Sahem only finished less than 1/2 a length in front of Furiosa in the SA Classic, so if one is of the view that Al Sahem and Furiosa are more or less priced up correctly at 25's and 40's respectively, then Pagoda was hugely overpriced

I still can't see any of these turning the tables on Heavenly Blue though.

Also, imo Marinaresco is favorite on reputation alone; he is set to carry 4 kgs more than last year, where a horse like Saratoga Dancer is currently set to carry 1.5 kgs less .... that's a swing of 5.5 kgs for a beating of a little more than 2 lengths ... and Ten Gun Salute is set to carry 2.5 kgs less (6.5 kg swing) for a beating of 3 lengths ... :huh:

Of the bottom seven in the pricing Heaps Of Fun and Belle Rose race on Saturday (22 Apr). Have taken the opportunity now that Belle Rose will be a shorter price than 100/1 come Monday ((popping eyes smiley).