Turffontein Thursday

Bob Brogan wrote: Race 1 PACHUCO

Race 3 TRIP TO TROY

Race 4 DETONATION

Race 5 TRICIA DUPONT

Race 6 NOTHER RUSSIA

Race 7 URGENT FURY

I am going to play these with exception of Urgent Fury...I really like Coral Fever in that race.

Not studied much for today as not about but trying...

E/W PP/LH double to close the day (or maybe save it lol) Urgent Fury x Save The Day

and a couple of very small stake e/w patents...
R1 Lulu's Lecture x R2 Lingerie x R7 Urgent Fury
R2 Ribbonofmoonlight x R6 Elusive Prophecy x R7 Urgent Fury

Be(s)t of luck to all

Race 2: Bristol Blue (Breeding Background)

Bristol Blue is a half brother to the stallion Russian Sage who won the Grade 1 Cape Derby and Daily News 2000 in his classic year amongst other races. Bristol Blue, dam, Sage Blue, has foaled the hard knocking filly Three Blue Cranes and also Sage Throne who was an unlucky loser in the KZN Derby after winning it. Bristol Blue grandam, Grey Blue, has produced SA Derby Winner, Silver Sliver.

Race 6

Snowdonia - bred to go the distance and L. Hewitson taking off 4kg's must give this a really good chance. 52.5kg's on its back should push the favourite. I'll be taking my chances on this one. Only play for the day

Correction - only 52kg's. Only a maiden winner but feel this one has a good shout.

Race 3- Taking on the short price with Kings Landing. 5/1

Fair for in kzn could either win on by a nostril or run somewhere midfield. Just can't have the 6/10 on the favorite.

Otherwise I like Tarry horse in the first.

First timer in the 2nd.

Not her Russia

and Goose horse Tricia

Bar Trip to Troy and perhaps Nother Russia, I can't find too may 'pointers'

R1: Not a fan of Pachuco, I think he needs further and the draw won't help; Rock On no star either, but his turn will come one of these days; best each-way value imo is August Duke who was slow and green from a wide draw on his debut and is bound to improve; Miracle Bureau should be running on from a wide draw and interesting that both Royal Regatta and first timer Pistolero are currently trading at shortish odds on the tote ....

R2: Weakish lot, so Bristol Blue does not have to be a superstar to win this; Lingerie has shown glimpses of form, so at 20/1 does represent some value imo

R3: Trip to Troy deserving favorite imo, only danger is Nawra....something must have gone wrong in his last run as his penultimate was a good run ...perhaps 7/1 not the worst value

R4: I prefer Sheet Weaver to Detonation, yes it did look like Detonation produced a flying finish in this last start, but that was a very weak work riders race and the others were slowing to a walk imo; SW on the other hand comes out of a stronger race and should be ideally suited to the trip; Umtheto is finally learning what it is all about and could be a threat if the blinkers bring about further improvement

R5: Weak fillies maiden; Trishia du Pont obvious claims, but stamina doubts plus a wide draw against her; Aspen Shadow could be improving and is my tentative first choice; main danger imo is Vision of Dahlia and only other one to consider is Secret Angel, who may be better than her last 2 efforts

R6: Nother Russia on the up and could prove much better than her current 77 MR; roughie to consider for the placings imo is Snowdonia, has a handy weight and the plum draw and has beaten subsequent winner Cambridge Choir by 6.5 lengths when winning her maiden' Divine Wind was all the rage last time, not a lot between her and Soldier Girl and both can place

R7: Very competitive; cases can be made for many - load up

R8: Another tough race to close, but I think one could do worse than to side with Nesspresso - if she fails, many others need consideration

Enjoy

Frodo wrote: Bar Trip to Troy and perhaps Nother Russia, I can't find too may 'pointers'

R1: Not a fan of Pachuco, I think he needs further and the draw won't help; Rock On no star either, but his turn will come one of these days; best each-way value imo is August Duke who was slow and green from a wide draw on his debut and is bound to improve; Miracle Bureau should be running on from a wide draw and interesting that both Royal Regatta and first timer Pistolero are currently trading at shortish odds on the tote ....

R2: Weakish lot, so Bristol Blue does not have to be a superstar to win this; Lingerie has shown glimpses of form, so at 20/1 does represent some value imo

R3: Trip to Troy deserving favorite imo, only danger is Nawra....something must have gone wrong in his last run as his penultimate was a good run ...perhaps 7/1 not the worst value

R4: I prefer Sheet Weaver to Detonation, yes it did look like Detonation produced a flying finish in this last start, but that was a very weak work riders race and the others were slowing to a walk imo; SW on the other hand comes out of a stronger race and should be ideally suited to the trip; Umtheto is finally learning what it is all about and could be a threat if the blinkers bring about further improvement

R5: Weak fillies maiden; Trishia du Pont obvious claims, but stamina doubts plus a wide draw against her; Aspen Shadow could be improving and is my tentative first choice; main danger imo is Vision of Dahlia and only other one to consider is Secret Angel, who may be better than her last 2 efforts

R6: Nother Russia on the up and could prove much better than her current 77 MR; roughie to consider for the placings imo is Snowdonia, has a handy weight and the plum draw and has beaten subsequent winner Cambridge Choir by 6.5 lengths when winning her maiden' Divine Wind was all the rage last time, not a lot between her and Soldier Girl and both can place

R7: Very competitive; cases can be made for many - load up

R8: Another tough race to close, but I think one could do worse than to side with Nesspresso - if she fails, many others need consideration

Enjoy

Thanks Frodo, some good analysis. I agree with the above with exception of Puchuco, and I'll explain why, he's time over distance behind Oculus is nearly two full seconds faster than anything he meets today, he's still improving and will undoubtedly be quicker than that run with improvement, on that alone he should crush this field. He hasn't been supported previously from double figure odds despite showing improvement and today from much shorter odds he's been well backed, the horse also belongs to Tarry. The draw will play no significance and I can assure the trip is spot on, Tarry knows what he's doing.

I agree anything can happen, it's racing after all, but I'll be somewhat bewildered if he doesnt win by a street.

The Bluntpunt . No solid info today. Just follow the Winning_ Post.

All I can add is that I had a bet on Sheet Weaver...now drifting like a barge board.

Khumalo race 1 and 7. However WP does not agree we me on the 2nd one.

Bristol Blue.. I was told yesterday at 33/10 to have a FULL GO. I did not.

JA ...that's it.

I am waiting for Saturday LOL

race 1 sleep in seattle 12/1 my value bet

Deeno wrote: The Bluntpunt . No solid info today. Just follow the Winning_ Post.

All I can add is that I had a bet on Sheet Weaver...now drifting like a barge board.

Khumalo race 1 and 7. However WP does not agree we me on the 2nd one.

Bristol Blue.. I was told yesterday at 33/10 to have a FULL GO. I did not.

JA ...that's it.

I am waiting for Saturday LOL

I think it will win for the very reason that Frodo quoted. It's not necessarily a bad thing if your fancy drifts in light of support for another runner in the race, good old supply and demand. If it blows right out for no apparent reason then that would be cause for concern. Never follow the sheople if you never fancied the horse for starters.

Khumalo, at least assuming he was still on Machismo, is scratched in the 7th anyway Deeno.

Annoying as there will now be deductions on Urgent Fury's win... :silly: :evil: