The Vaal Thursday

Betting Race:7
   
HorseOpenHistoryCurrent
1  A Propos7/1 7/1
2  Shamal12/10 12/10
3  Lizzie`s Legs7/2 7/2
4  Belinsky6/1 6/1
5  Zena`s Own8/1 10/1
6  Nkomo20/1 16/1
7  Californian Girl20/1 20/1
8  Empire Of The MoonSCRATCHED
9  Merlins Gem50/1 50/1
10  Greyish14/120/125/1
# = First time runner

this track sucks big time !!!
The Prof will place in the last

Betting Race:8

HorseOpenHistoryCurrent
1  Brave Vision7/2 7/2
2  Rebel Magic11/26/111/2
3  Dravidian16/1 12/1
4  Dream Leader7/18/17/1
5  Leodocus20/1 33/1
6  Tiger Hotspur3/133/107/2
7  Eagle Face20/1 25/1
8  Captain`s Diva10/1 12/1
9  Extraordinaire33/125/120/1
10  Jolly Good Sir33/1 33/1
11  Royal Stock10/1 10/1
12  The Professor10/1 12/1
13  Warbash50/1 50/1
# = First time runner

According 2 my nutcase calculations, if any1 interested.lol.
I Have the big easy @ MR91, so around 4.5kgs weel off

Jules

1,4/5,2/10,2/5/10,12,4/2/1,6,4

5,2,7,4,3
10,2,9,11
5
10,12,4
2,3,4,6
1,6,4,12,2,8,9

10,2,9,11
5
10,12,4
2,3,4,6

and Brads Surge vb

Always wary of potential shocks before a big meeting to increase the carry over pool.
Here are my early fancies e/w

R2 All jammed up, tell my star, Cerise silk, Dover beach (9kg's better off with go Dutch for a 3 length beating.)

R3 mirage drive, his front running tactics on this surface make him a tough nut to crack.

R4 Celtic heroine makes me a little wary to back. Although on debut he ran 2.75 lengths behind amazing strike and amazing strike came out and won again he didn't really beat much. I'd much rather take my chances on lightning Lilly e/w at 20/1. Last time over the 1600 LL was 2,75 lengths in front of Chadderton who is half the price so some value could lie in LL.

R5 The big easy was super impressive on debut and will stick with him, although some value could lie with Impeccable at 66/1. Has come down quite nicely in the ratings and although has been miles back in last few runs he's been drawn terribly and now gets a decent draw. Other dangers Die Kat, Facebook.

R6 5/10 a bit short in my opinion on the favorite. First time the surface and coming off 18 week break il look elsewhere and depending on how Celtic heroine runs the right one may be Var countess. Will include others at big prices like red please and coral key.

R7 Shamal should get a much deserved 2nd career victory after knocking so hard on the door of late.

R8 Rebel Magic for me and a nice outsider to include is royal stock. I've always said over 1000 this horse can spring a surprise, then he duly surprised me lto over the 1200. I think 1000 is his optimum trip and his previous form shows that. I will be surprised if he's out of the top 4.

PA
4,5,6
2
3,10
4,5,7
12 ( not a confident banker, just can't find anything else to include)
2
2,6,7,11
R72

All the best chaps

Mirage Drive for me is the best bet on the card and i cant believe its 12/10. thats a gift imo

Some thoughts:

R1: A real minefield to start the Bi-Pot; first-timers would not have to be too good to feature here, but which ones? All of Red John, Commentator and Victor's Folly ran improved races on Tuesday on the turf, while Edge the Echo's sand efforts were not that bad - load up

R2: Tell My Star in form and should be right there again; as mentioned Dover Beach could pop up at these weights and All Jammed Up's last run too bad to be true; Go Dutch and Cerise Silk does look held at the weights, but have place chances as well

R3: Mirage Drive

R4: Celtic Heroine put a good debut effort, and does look too good here IF repeating that run; if not, Avenue could improve a lot on this surface and could pick up the pieces ; others to consider include Chadderton (fair sand efforts recently), and the sand debutants Phantom Bid and Soldier Girl

R5: The Big Easy impressive in his maiden win, beating subsequent winner Olympic Bolt easily, but he could face stiff opposition from Facebook, who beat All the Bids (a somewhat optimistic entry for the Emerald Cup) by more than 5 lengths - these two stand out for me from Perfect Trip and Mind Games

R6: Play Date could easily win this IF she takes to the sand, but at the odds I'm trying to beat her; interesting jockey arrangement is Wrogemann on sand debutante Almanach de Gotha (what a name :ohmy: ) in stead of taking the ride on Double Ridge - so I'm including both - also Var Countess may be better over this shorter trip and has pole position

R7: Weak fillies and mares handicap; Shamal the obvious one even if she may be better over 1600 - and has a wide draw, so could be worth opposing her - Lizzie's Legs tries further and has pole position so comes into the reckoning - the rest really looks moderate, so perhaps sand debutante Californian Girl is worth including

R8: Very open handicap to close; first 3 for me would be Dream Leader, The Professor and Royal Stock, but Brave Vision can't be ignored - Tiger Hotspur and Rebel Magic probably next best

Enjoy

r2:Tell my star appears to be the right one, with possible upset chance to stable mate All Jammed up and Azzie's inmate Dover Beach
r3:Mirage Drive but again see the possible upset coming from the stable mate Augustinus
r4: Celtic Heroine ran behind stay amazed 1st time out and that followed up, so looks hard to beat.... If I were to add would look at Chadderton and the 2 Azzie horses with pref for Avenue
r5:The Big easy. Facebook for the exacta
r6:Does look a little to straight forward today, as again the fav makes appeal and on breeding should love the surface. The Mistress gets a tongue tie and that may allow her to improve, whilst Gunter opting for Almanach might be worth including if any sniff of it shortening
r7:Lizzies legs and Zinas own the preference where I will include as many as I can afford
r8:Brave vision may be in need of a run & carries 61.5kg agst his older companions. Maybe the 1st6 and The Prof for exotics.
I must be coming down with something as i seem to be wading in with the favourites

MR MULLINER - Rated a 96 just 6 months ago now a 77 - If he goes on the sand he'll win as he has a draw and form stable.

Good to see you Malcolm

A potentially dangerous day and unless you fancy one at a decent price e/w or for a place maybe a day to avoid. Many of the shorties do look hard to oppose but it is often on these days that we are left shaking heads in disbelief. Still, in the hope it goes to, what I perceive as, form, I shall be doing some accumulators involving a number of the favs. Otherwise I have looked for some (tenuous) nutters to potentially make a few exactas, trifectas etc pay. Will be playing small...

R1 Seriously, who knows lol so let's brass the shorties... Red John (improved run on return having been gelded, though that was on turf and still a very weak looking race) x Victor's Folly x Edge The Echo x Vermont Hill

R2 Tell My Star x Go Dutch x All Jammed Up
R3 Mirage Drive x Brad's Surge x Augustinus
R4 Celtic Heroine x Jaimel x Sweet On You
R5 The Big Easy x Facebook x Perfect Trip
R6 Play Mate x Almanach de Gotha x Coral Key (Isikhati)
R7 Shamal x Nkomo x Belinsky (Californian Girl)
R8 Dream Leader x The Professor x Captain's Diva

Be(s)t of luck to all

The way i see it Shamal will struggle and is at the wrong price.The runner that i respect is Beyensky and her second to Bang Sue ahead of Party Peg,Super Gruppy,Apropos and Lavender Girl must count.She beat Nkomo 9,5 lengths when winning her maiden She has raced from off them but with the quality she meets here and the good draw the tactics might change

Her last run appears poor but if you look at the subsequent run of the horse that ran just ahead of her Icelandic Fire where she beat Go Dutch albeit 1600 turf and that one has the beating of the favourite
maybe brass those two favourites