Not my favourite course etc but boredom has led me here lol so let's see what happens! Firstly though, watch the market but be careful of the infamous (with me anyway lol) falsely supported horses. Secondly, it is my impression a lot of bollox is talked in KZN and the record for the number of good things which flop must be the worst in the country. Thirdly, it seems evident that some horses are taking to the track like a duck to water so form can be thrown upside down. Lastly, I may refer to having a better draw (ie lower etc) but I am not convinced that it makes a big difference on the KZN polytrack. On the few races I have watched, position is more important and most head to the outside rail, from there it can be just a case of whether a path can be weaved. ALL of that could be total rubbish though, just my impressions.
R1 Harry's Horse was much improved when dropped back to the minimum and perhaps more importantly with blinkers applied. On that run should be able to confirm the form with others here, although C Laird's He Rocks was only 1l behind he did had the 1 box. On the same day, and on debut, You Bolt ran marginally quicker than the aforementioned HH despite being drawn 12/12. Up against the boys here but, from a lower draw and a low weight, she must have decent claims. Possibly significant that Laird also has a debutant out, Roy's Donkey. whom Marcus rides. Easily the best win combo on view. Special Encounter is another debutant, Wright/Delpech. worthy of consideration and it may well be that these two fight it out and, uf on turf I might have gone with the debutants but, I think experience may count here so... You Bolt x Harry's Horse x Roy's Donkey
R2 Mogokity a strong favourite and has consistent form. Strongly respected but the form is perhaps not as strong as it might appear at first glance and on lines, particularly through Djemba Jamming, others in this field seem to be fairly closely matched with her. The draw may make position/and or a path through difficult so on balance it seems (potentially!) sensible to look elsewhere for better value. Hullo Lily has run some seemingly fair efforts but, lto she finished only 0.2l ahead of the not so well drawn Shikra who is a 33/1 shot here and behind the previously mentioned Djemba Jamming (who also had a worse draw). That run could be ignored but a major concern for me so another pass. Indeed, I would rather chance Shikra at the odds and will nibble as that would appear to have been a much improved run and if she takes to the Poly then from a better draw she is not completely chanceless imo. While on the subject of idiots, I will also nibble Grand Approach and Until We Dance which shows how open this might be. Summer of Sixty Nine and Dirty Dancing though were the two I ended up with and the latter, though seemingly with some potential issues, got the finl vote based on the much improved run lto with the blinkers applied.
R3 Obrega has an obvious chance and Ivanovich if fit should be competitive but there are two which I see as potentially better value. Secret Admirer is my first selection. Although she was beaten 5.8l into 8th that day, the top 5 are now all winners with 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all winning nto. When considering she was drawn 18/16 over the Scotsville 1200 and lost 3l from the stalls that day that was a very good effort. She has another poor draw here but if she gets away on terms then she looks to me to be in with a big chance here with Brandon Lerena replacing Dillon as pilot, the former having a 25% wins record in his kast 20 rides for the stable. If she fails to get away again or needs it after a 14 week break then I think Tenderwood is the one who might take advantage. Her form for me is better than the results might suggest on face value and I think she has a very decent e/w chance based on some lines. Good draw but not entirely happy with the jockey booking as he has seemingly not been firing for some time now. That said, hopefully that will change here. A couple of others have chances but the 4 mentioned would be my quartet. Secret Admirer x Tenderwood x Obrega
R4 Wonderful Cross was much improved lto with the blinkers applied and though the improvement may just have been due to the longer d, the removal of the blinkers is a concern for me and I have looked elsewhere. The same scenario, removal of blinkers, also puts me off Excitement Seeker somewhat, she is closely matched with a few here and again I have tentatively passed her by. Imbuta Castrum is the one I will go with, she has been consistent and may just have the edge on recent runs over a few of her rivals here, over shorter but running on nicely. The value bet though could be Coco Love who has had two decent runs on c including lto when a strong finishing runner-up under this appie over 1800, Buzz was not far behind and is my trifecta horse.
R5 A really tight looking maiden where I could make something of a case for almost the entire field. Teppanyaki the biggest value of those on the run behind Boyes Drive and though imo not the most likely to win, must have a chance. The improving Mucajaii came out best that day and must have a big chance but I am going to side with King's Eleven who, on debut, was 1.85l ahead of Mucajai over 1400 with the latter having already had the benefit of a run. Seeking The Dream should be in the vicinity and could fill the trifecta spot but In The Trenches must also have a chance if improving from his first outing while Whats The Turnover, Ice Pack and April Rock all worth a mention and no surprise if any of those mentioned come out on top.
R6 Likely to be competed between those seemingly closely matched on runs behind Resolution. Supercede (3-0-3 in 6 d runs) may look the most obvious and Cormack has presumably chosen her but, Tara Dawn (2-0-3 in 7 d runs) was baulked and may have run Resolution closer in their meeting and my selection, Royal Nisha, who, of these three, seems best in at the weights on their runs against Resolution, confirmed her well being with a close-up bronze lto on her return from a 16 week break and has won 2nd run after returning from 13 week and then 9 week rests in the not too distant past. Sounds Positive the most likely to complete the quartet.
R7 Roy's Royalty and Shellys Connection both look to have sound claims here but at the weights, on runs to Imperial Wish and Ethylene respectively, Popular Blues has significant weight swings with both for not many lengths and at the prices looks the value bet to me here. Decent return from a 15 week rest lto and if coming on for that run then she looks to have definite e/w chances here. Yet to race on the track and a wide draw but the appie gives her a very light weight and she should be thereabouts. Artistically Done could complete the quartet.
R8 On past form, at better weights, there are a couple who might get involved if coming back to that form but assuming that is not the case the quartet looks likely to me to be filled by the top 4 in the market. The Helmsman and Chill look a little ahead of the remainder and I will side with TH to again get the better of his rival (but all the best to Craig!). Jamal to take the trifecta spot ahead of Too Much Fun.
That's enough lol
R9 8 x 7 x 4 x 1 Dark Eyes x Kaji x Red Rosette x Blizzard Belle
R10 4 x 3 x 7 Touching Base x Miesquesbrook x Bez Valley
Be(s)t of luck to all
The following user(s) said Thank You: kristieN, TNaicker
Englander if you are bored why don't you jump in your motor get onto the M6 and head down to Birmingham and go and support your team against India today. They need all the support that they can get :ohmy:
