A much trickier card imo than it looks at first glance, a few jottings...
R1 Molus Tollendi appears the obvious one and indeed of those with c experience, he is very hard to oppose. He does try the d for the first time but was finishing well lto so hopefully it should not be an issue. On debut though he was beaten by a Spies trained runner so he has a line through which to work. Nothing in the breeding suggests to me that Brize Norton will take to the sand though and on balance, given that BN is somewhat surprisingly imo, odds-on, I'll stay with the one who is proven on the surface... MODUS TOLLENDI x BRIZE NORTON
R2 Of those with sand experience it looks to me as though only Extreme Dream and Imperial Coast could challenge Fly Me High and both those are well held on the form behind Secret Delight. The two debutants Blanch Road and Bronze Idol interest me a little. Neither have anything in the breeding that suggests to me they will go well on the sand but the former is from the inform Prinsloo yard and the latter is the mount of Brown who steps off stablemate ED in order to ride this one. Of the remainder, although MVR has opted for IC over Liar's Poker, the latter tries the minimum trip for the first time, gets the appie claim, now has blinkers on and could have needed the last run badly. He was only 2.25l back of ED over 1200 on c debut. Three Quarter makes his c debut and seems to have improved since his one effort on the Vaal sand and could surprise. National Al looks well held on his only c run but could have come on for that. They all have something in the breeding to suggest the sand may suit so it would not be a huge shock to me to see one of them make surprising improvement here and I'll chance it will be LP with a very small e/w idiot... FLY ME HIGH x BRONZE IDOL x IMPERIAL COAST
R3 None without a chance and indeed if bouncing back to best then I would make Captain Siderius the one to beat. But, I can't keep hoping CS will return to form (so it will be very annoying if he does so here! lol). Karlo finished ahead of Sir Isaac lto but that was over 2200 and he has yet to win and has only three places in 19 runs over the trip, including when finishing 4.5l behind SI over c/d in his penultimate run. Quick Glance tries the trip for the first time and whether he will stay must be something of a concern, definite chance if he does so but he also looks held to me by SI on a line through Desert Breeze. Given that Silly Mid-On was returning from 14 weeks off lto when also uncharacteristically breaking poorly and his career does have the occasional poor run mixed in, he is a big price imo and should not be overlooked. He has placed 10 times in his 16 c runs, winning 4 of them but is another who tries the trip for the first time. African Gladiator was well behind SI in his penultimate outing but that was from a wide draw and is likely to go closer today, he is 4-3-1 in 10 c/d runs. The somewhat unknown quantity is Lunar Emblem who won well over c/d on his sand debut lto and though he is facing stronger here he could well be good enough to cope. A tricky affair and nothing would completely surprise me... SIR ISAAC x LUNAR EMBLEM x QUICK GLANCE
R4 Ilisabetta not out of it if not needing the run but primarily I see this as a three horse race. If you overlook the last run, and the blinkers are off again, then Fort Dixy must have a chance and is closely matched with Son Of A P in his penultimate run over 1800. He has proven form over 1400 whereas there is still a question for me with SOAP over the shorter trip. In FD's last outing, over 1600, Captive Consort was an unfortunate (and very annoying!!) loser on debut, he looked as though he could have a relatively decent sand future though and is probably worth sticking with... CAPTIVE CONSORT x FORT DIXY x SON OF A P
R5 All about the Shams (and Stef of course!!) As Rob mentioned earlier, and I suspect this was one he was referring to, not easy to pick between them... TUDOR STAR x GYPSY FAIR x VESTAL VIRGIN
R6 Difficult with no super-sand-stars here. If Wind At Your Back truly sees out the d and there must be a question mark against that, then he he has a big chance imo. Possibly the best priced for me is Hostile Takeover, was he virus affected lto? has beaten WAYB over 1200 and is probably more suited of the two to 1400, wide draw though. A back to best form Airani would go close and there are plenty in with something of a chance with cases can easily be made for Noah Forever, Jaguar etc but, in the end, I have somewhat defensively gone with Giant Strides who has been consistent of late without quite being good enough. It could well be a similar story today but... GIANT STRIDES x JAGUAR x WIND AT YOUR BACK
R7 STEP IT UP x QUEEN BESS x PRINCESS CHICHIBU
R8 FABOOLOSITY x BLACK PEPPER x REBEL ASSAULT
R9 KATANGA x SAN VICENZO x GLOBE TROTTER
LG's two in the 7th and 8th are respected in tough races (would have been all over the 50/1 on Societi as predicted by Winning Form, had big idiots scrawled for that!! lol Have gone for Faboolosity over Black Pepper based on previous meetings and the fact that Fab has c experience and performed well on that occasion. But, based on their last sand runs, preference would have to be for BP.
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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