Do we have many long term punters/traders here?

My current long term position is as follows :

BPL - Chelsea

S15- Chiefs

I work as follows :

I play each afternoon off a pool of R20,000 but primarily on UK racing. (This is because I find their form more reliable and the market easier to read. Unlike South Africa they seldom produce 20/1 shots who roll 1/2 shots and, in particular, make it profitable to punt in races where there is a 'boat race' - ie there appear to be only 2 horses capable of winning ) I try and make 'a book' on each race that I participate on so I often back up to 4 horses per race. My goal is to make a profit of about R1,000 per race but I often earn a lot less - dependent upon which horse wins.

Anything over R 2,500 per day is immediately punted on the long term targets - dependent upon which target offers the better value on the day. On a really good day I might spend R 2,000+ on one or more of those targets. The initial R2,500 pd ( if earned ) I bank and/or spend.

( eg Last year I backed the Chiefs in the Super 15. I think I eventually had about 130 bets on them ranging from R20 up to R1,000 odd. I cleared about R250,000 profit ).

This may sound silly but, because I punt the long term events off my winnings only, I seldom feel under pressure as to how much money I might lose. Also - because my bets are relatively small I don't really have difficulty 'getting on'.

When I get to the 'short strokes' ( ie the end of the competition ) I may consider laying off if I suspect my side is not a 'shoe in' to win.

You may find it interesting to know what I DO NOT bet on.

I avoid all races up to 1200m. (In a sprint the slightest setback makes it impossible for your horse to win ).
I exercise caution on steeple chases beyond 4800m
I NEVER play at Flamingo Park or PE. On balance I have more punts in Gauteng ( excluding the Vaal and particularly Vaal sand which I mostly avoid ) than other SA racecourses.
I seldom play any South African racing except races of 1600m +.
I find local form only works out for me ( given that I 'know' nothing and avoid all the nonsense being tipped ) on races over 1600m+.
The UK offers LOTS of races over middle - long distances so that keeps me happy!
I avoid punting horses from yards like De Kock's in 'bread and butter' races as they are ALWAYS way under the odds.
I seldom punt horses ridden by moderate jockeys as they appear to me to lose a lot of races they could have/should have won. I find it difficult to use the description 'world class' when describing the majority of SA jockeys.
I avoid the TOTE like the plague as I cannot build my position without knowing in advance what my returns will be.

Another technique that works for me is :

Where there is an odds on shot I play as follows :

I bet R1,000 on the odds shot ( example R600 / R1000 )
I take R 500 of my potential R600 profit and bet it on any other genuine contender at a longer price. The R100 left behind covers taxes and returns a miniscule profit )
If my second choice wins I often clear a substantial profit as the odds on shots get beaten alarmingly often in SA racing.

On reflection the best advice I ever got when I started punting was :

Nobody ever went out punting 14/1 shots.

Garrick Wrote:

---

> Anything over R 2,500 per day is immediately
> punted on the long term targets - dependent upon
> which target offers the better value on the day.
> On a really good day I might spend R 2,000+ on one
> or more of those targets. The initial R2,500 pd (
> if earned ) I bank and/or spend.

> This may sound silly but, because I punt the long
> term events off my winnings only, I seldom feel
> under pressure as to how much money I might lose.

> When I get to the 'short strokes' ( ie the end of
> the competition ) I may consider laying off if I
> suspect my side is not a 'shoe in' to win.

> Nobody ever went out punting 14/1 shots.

The above quoted is my strategy exactly, but I cannot remember ever reading this anywhere before - amazing

Another superb post by Garrick:

a)I also use winnings almost exclusively, for long term bets........so right about the pressure and
b) very few are intended to endure the full term!..........I trade(or tinker) to eliminate liability when I can.

If Man City don't win and Chelsea do,tonight ,I will almost certainly do a trade t'morrow!

garrick and rob how do you "trade" when the price shorten?

Flash Harry Wrote:

---

> garrick and rob how do you "trade" when the price
> shorten?

Sshhhh Flash,I use exchanges ..............there are still some available !

Definitely will.

Flash - If I have built up 'stock' on a given event with my bookmaker he will normally be only too happy for me to lay off some (and sometimes a lot! ) nearer to the end of the competition. Perfectly legal and legitimate to lay back bets to a bookmaker where you struck the bet/s in the first instance.

No matter how one plays it there is always the possibility that you will have to sweat at some point in the exercise.

Again - by way of an example - does anyone remember how 'unbeatable' the Crusaders were touted as being when they bumped the Chiefs in the semi's last year after trashing them (the Chiefs) two weeks earlier.

What everybody conveniently forgot was this : No NZ side playing at home in a semi in NZ ( the Chiefs were at home ) has ever lost since the inception of the competition. Nothing changed. And to make matters worse - nobody placed any importance in the fact that they had met earlier at the same venue with the same result as the semi produced.

I now know what bookmakers sometimes have to go through - the sheer weight of money often appears so convincing as to make you think the punters have read next Monday's newspapers!

Reminds me of another old bookmaker saying - There is now TOO MUCH money on this horse. And.....bang!.....it gets rolled or suffers one of those hair tearing setbacks like missing the jump or saddle slip. And reminds us that there is NO sure thing in any event where the gamble is involved.

As someone who regularly 'dutches' I cannot believe how poor my strike rate is with regard to my 'first choices' in a horse race. If I could lay EVERY first choice I would probably be wealthy. I am saved by my 'covers' more often than not.

Which reminds me - look for profit and not killings.

@ Garrick -- GREAT posts. (tu)

chrism Wrote:

---

> @ Garrick -- GREAT posts. (tu)

always...(tu)

As if to illustrate Garrick's point, the New York Times made a short video, check it out here:

The Wizard Of Odds

Edge Wrote:

---

> As if to illustrate Garrick's point, the New York
> Times made a short video, check it out here:
>
> The Wizard Of Odds


wonder if the NYT has the express written permission from michael shakleford, the man who now owns the moniker, the wizard of odds???
HOWEVER, he is not the original wizard of odds. That belongs to a game show that was hosted by Alex Trebeck (think jeopardy host). After that though there was also a bag man for the mob in Vegas whose name escapes me, that was also called the wizard of odds by the chicago mob family he worked for. H was the skim guy in the 80's.