Flamingo Park 2/12/13

E man we have a top class card and a straight line PA is expected with 3 or even 4 winners being a very real possibility..

Titch Wrote:

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> E man we have a top class card and a straight line
> PA is expected with 3 or even 4 winners is a very
> real possibility..

5?

However these are the kind of cards that can bight one in the butt ...

Always potential for the butt to lose a few chunks Titch

R1 Not the strongest of fields and those with experience have questions to answer. Beach Bar has placed in 5 out of 6 runs at the d but the unplaced was his only try over c n d and was also not competitive when tried at 1400. He has been noted as running on over 1000 and could win but there is a risk imo. Princess Chichibu also has questions to answer at the d and despite the hype Legend's Moon has yet to shine though the appie does give her a low weight here. Jetali comes off an 18 week rest and BB would seem to be the stable elect. Ornella has a little in the breeding to suggest she might take to the surface but the stable is so out of form that the risk is not worth it. More interesting is the booking of Muzi on the sand debutant Somethinwicked, he is 23% wins and 46% places for the trainer and the breedings suggests a chance the horse will like the sand, blinkers are on but is coming off a 29 week rest. The most likely on breeding though imo to take to the surface is She's Amazing and though I am far from full of confidence, the stable and jockey have been in decent form and with the others having question marks, I'll take my chances with her... SHE'S AMAZING x SOMETHINWICKED x BEACH BAR x LEGEND'S MOON

R2 Hmmm 4 of the 6 runners come from the one stable, but at least that stable's runners are always consistent so we should be able to trust the form... hmmmm again! Eye Of The World can never be discounted but has only two thirds in 5 attempts at this d, Dolomite looks well held, Karlo has not looked like challenging of late so, Desert Rat should be the one from that stable to go closest with three wins in his seven c n d runs. I think African Gladiator though could be the right one with a 1-1-1 record in his three c n d efforts and only twice out of the top 3 in his 12 c runs... AFRICAN GLADIATOR x DESERT RAT x DOLOMITE

R3 A tricky affair with 3 Visser runners and 4 winners lto, 2 of whom were winning on their first visit to the course. Not unusually for a Visser horse, Memghar has gone from a potential "star" to a no hoper in the space of a couple of months, he was well supported lto but failed again and never looked like competing. The problem is, sometimes horses from this stable somehow return to form when least expected but even with Gunter up, this one is difficult to recommend currently. Shark Attack has been consistent of late and is likely to be competitive but, he was beaten 2l into 3rd in his penultimate run by Swing Away (1.5kgs worse off) with Rebel Assault a 1.5l 2nd (1kg better off with Shark A). Change Your Mind was a 2.75l 4th (same weight differential with Swing A) but does appear held. RA has disappointed twice since that run over 1200 (supported from 10s into 10/3 lto), he does not seem to be the most reliable but it is possible the return to 1000 will see improvement again. That could also be true of Sarge Tattoo who won his debut over 1200 but has tired since, he may be better over the minimum trip and he does appear to have some gate speed. Faboolosity comes from the Vaal sand where he has competed against some decent sorts. Unfortunately, he seems to have had some problems with 3 rests after each of his recent runs and comes here off an 18 week break. If sorted and fit then he would definitely have a chance here and might be worth an idiot nibble if a big price. Stallone looks held but would not have to find too much to be competitive and that is also true of Jagerbomb who was much improved lto and if repeating is closely matched with Shark A. Sheikitup finally put it together lto to win his maiden by 6l over 1000 but was 9l behind ST over 1200 in his penultimate and seems to have work to do. Wolf's Girl was a decent winner on his sand debut lto and Woodland Trade was very quick out of the blocks to get over when drawn 13/13 over 1200 when also winning on sand debut lto, he pulled away in the last 200 but was always infront and the drop in d may not concern him. With a lot of possibilities it is not a race I can be wholly confident about but I did like WT's win lto and with Muzi retaining the ride he could be the right one... WOODLAND TRADE x WOLF'S GIRL x SWING AWAY x SHARK ATTACK

R4 Blardy hell, this looks a poor field! lol Plenty who can seemingly be discounted at a glance but few with an obvious chance, some trying the d and others with possible excuses previously etc, all of which means the potential for a shock is probably big! Astro Vision must have a chance if she stays. Reserved Lady is on 3rd run after a rest and has challenged in her last two runs. She holds Ilisabetta easily on both those runs but the latest may have been too far for Ilisabetta and in the penultimate she possibly had excuses. That said, Ilisabetta just doesn't convince me. Interesting too, though maybe not too much should be read into it, that Gunter goes to Aspen Tree who was soundly beaten on her sand debut when fading badly. Possibly not one to give up on just yet but it was a disappointing debut on the surface. Bright Solitaire (Visser/Yeni) had excuses lto and could prove competitive in this field, that last run was third after a rest. Albert's Favourite also had excuses lto when making her sand debut and might improve (had down for 2nd as an idiot but scratched). Disturbia could come on for her last run and again has some potential for improvement but a wide draw. River Mist may also do better over this d but then again, maybe not! A really tough one, I am not a fan of those likely to be at the head of the market and think it quite possible, though by no means certain, one or two will improve and beat them. No idea what the market will be in truth but I'm going to try and avoid those I expect to be at the top and hopefully find a little value and more than a lot of luck!... DISTURBIA x BRIGHT SOLITAIRE x ASPEN TREE x RIVER MIST

R5 Just brief jottings on this one as Foam Party's sand debut looked good enough to me to hold those with c experience. But, she is up against the boys here, one of whom is Cockney Tiger and he makes his c debut and is on 3rd run after a rest. His last two on the turf were possibly disappointing but prior to that, on his only two visits to the Vaal sand, he won his maiden (2nd won nto) and then followed up against some fairly battle-hardened campaigners. If he takes to Bingo as well as he did to the Vaal sand then I think he will win but FP may well make him work hard for it. The minor places are more open but I'll go with... COCKNEY TIGER x FOAM PARTY x SUPER GROOVE x WOODLAND FIRE

R6 A decent race in prospect with a few closely matched and a couple of others with potential. Breakspear and Tripartite are both capable on their day but do look held here, not without chances but others look to have stronger claims to me. Shadowofthewind needed the last run and may well do so again, likely to improve but more of a watching brief for me here. New Circle drops back to his winning maiden d after performing over 1400 lto where he was far from disgraced and, though I am just not convinced the overall form is strong enough against some of these, he can't be discounted. Derbaas, I believe, in Titch's opinion is better over 1000 and she was VERY LUCKY to hold on last time over the minimum trip from the VERY UNLUCKY Wind At Your Back The latter for me could be a big runner here, he has been in good form lately and finished very strongly over 1000 lto. Overlooking their last meeting, when he possibly used up too much too soon, he is closely matched in recent runs with Sudden Surprise and, at the weights and with SS drawn widest, if he is produced at the right time then it could be his day. That said, he will not find SS easy to overcome and this one won well from a wide draw lto. On that run, he is closely matched with Woza Friday and the latter not only has the better of the draw again but also a 1kg pull for a 0.25l defeat. That could be enough to see WF home this time but, I was with SS last time (great great value he comments modestly in true arm fashion!!) and I just think he is slightly the better horse. He has shown a willingness to win in a fight, which this may well become and Muzi is back aboard which can't be a negative. I think he may just scrape home again... SUDDEN SURPRISE x WOZA FRIDAY x WIND AT YOUR BACK x DERBAAS

R7 Conflicting form lines, newcomers to the sand, changes in d and possibly inconsistent horses don't make this an easy one to fathom. Theory was very disappointing lto and if you ignore those and go with her two previous runs, under this jockey, then she must have a decent shout considering they were her 2nd and 3rd runs after a long rest. The weakness of that last run is a big concern for me though and with the price likely to be on the short side, I'll side with doing a watching brief here. Countess Kate comes back to this for the first time in 6 months. She has had some decent efforts over further but she is inconsistent and I am not sure the drop will particularly suit, though she has won twice in 8 c n d runs. Again, I don't expect much of a price and she'll fall into the watching brief catagory also at this d. Zero South faded badly over 1200 lto following a 27 week rest. I think the drop in trip improves her chances but the concern is whether that run will have brought her on sufficiently or whether another is needed. Whisper the Wind seems inconsistent to me and the formlines with others here, particularly Theory and Hail the Wind, are somewhat conflicting. If at her best then she could be competitive and it might be her day but difficult to support with confidence. That said, Hail The Wind is the Visser representative and has definite prospects here imo. Well behind CK over 1200 but I suspect this d is more suited to her, she had also finished behind both Theory and WTW over 1000 before finishing ahead of them both lto, 0.55l ahead of WTW with no weight differential here. It seems to me she has been steadily improving and if she does so again here then she could be the right one. Arak Attack is a newcomer to the c and represents the Miller/MVR combination and is not to be discounted. Comes off a 16 week rest and nothing in the breeding to suggest she will take to the surface but if she does and is fit then she has a chance. Mediterrea makes her c debut but this looks too short, watching brief. Difficult to see the others landing a blow. If the price is big enough I will definitely be risking a little in the hope that Zero South is ready but, I have a big nag that Hail The Wind has been progressing and will be the right one here. HAIL THE WIND x ZERO SOUTH x ARAK ATTACK x WHISPER THE WIND

R8 Going to do this one through a fairly basic process of elimination! Surely not even Muzi can bring about a 13l turnaround in form with stablemate Billy's Legacy?? (ie tread carefully!! lol) And Prestwick's form just does not look good enough to win coming off a 25 week break. Take into account three horses from a badly out of form stable and the field should be reduced to 6 potentials. Mapoggo is up in d and assuming he stays then he has a chance but I'll take a watching brief. BL was 15l behind Thunderstreak lto and it is hard to see sufficient improvement to overturn it over 200 less, a distance he also appears held at by others in the field. Thunderstreak looks closely matched with Quick Glance on recent runs while the latter in turn would run close with Miesque's Critic on the run behind Captivator. However, MC does seem to have the upper hand on the runs behind Hlamba and he again has the better of the draw. MC and All The Ones were only separated by 0.25l lto over 1400 and ATO is now 0.5kgs better off. I think MC might just be the better of the two though over the additional 200... MIESQUE'S CRITIC x ALL THE ONES x THUNDERSTREAK x QUICK GLANCE

R9 A poor finish to proceedings so, as I am tiring badly too lol, just my brief thoughts. I would like to go with Stef and the Shams and put up With Passion but there have to be questions over the d, if she does stay then I think she will win. Not sure quite why but, Sakkie Sakkie bothers me, nothing indicates a return to form is imminent but if that should happen then definitely thereabouts. Blushing Grey has seemingly improved of late but looks held by Flo Rider and Pole Dance. Regal Breeze likely to be in the vicinity. My hunch is that WP won't see out the d with all cylinders firing and others will finish stronger. I see the finish being contested by FR and PD. Of the two, I marginally prefer FR to round off what I think could be a good day for Muzi... FLO RIDER x POLE DANCE x REGAL BREEZE x WITH PASSION

Scratchings plse and thank you as always

Scratchings
Race No. Horse No. Horse Name Comment Time Date Adv. Advised Captured
2 6 Pole Star Not eating up 16:00 20131128 Johan Janse van Vuuren Arvinm
4 11 Albert's Favourite Lame near fore 07:47 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
4 13 Best Silk Coughing 07:47 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
9 2 Little Swan Lame behind 08:05 20131202 J Borman Serenam
9 4 Blushing Grey Not eating up 08:14 20131202 Tienie Prinsloo Barnesg
9 7 Dawn Eclipse Coughing 07:49 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
Jockey Changes
Race No. Horse No. Horse Name Comment Time Date Adv. Advised Captured
1 8 Legend's Moon F Naude 07:47 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
2 4 Vengence J Greyling +0.5 07:51 20131202 Stephanie Cherylv
2 7 Karlo *A Aucharuz +1 08:32 20131202 Joanne Barnesg
3 12 Rebel Assault S Nhlapo +0.5 07:59 20131202 Leon Lotz Barnesg
4 12 Rainbow Spectrum F Naude 07:48 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
4 15 Unrelated E Pheiffer 07:54 20131202 Stephanie Audreyb
5 5 Super Groove *A Aucharuz 07:48 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
6 6 New Circle *A Aucharuz 07:48 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
7 1 Theory G Wrogemann 10:38 20131201 S von Willingh Smit Audreyb
7 2 Zero South F Naude 07:49 20131202 C Lensley Sarishar
7 6 Hail The Wind M Yeni 08:25 20131202 Joanne Arvinm
7 8 Mediterrea *A Aucharuz 10:38 20131201 S von Willingh Smit Audreyb
7 9 Cosmic Candy E Pheiffer 07:23 20131202 C Miller Rafs
7 10 Fantasy Hostess S Nhlapo +1 08:57 20131202 Leon Lotz Barnesg
8 4 All The Ones *C Thabana (2.5) 08:34 20131202 Coerie Lensley Cherylv
Equipment Changes
Race No. Horse No. Horse Name Comment Time Date Adv. Advised Captured
1 3 Fun Factory Alumites Front On, Unshod behind 13:50 20131127 System Charlesb
1 11 Lady Megz Alumites Front On, Unshod behind 13:50 20131127 System Charlesb
1 11 Lady Megz Tongue Ties On 08:12 20131202 Jannie Borman Arvinm
1 12 Ornella Alumites Front On, Unshod behind 13:50 20131127 System Charlesb
2 1 Eye Of The World Blinkers On, Tongue Ties Off 08:10 20131202 Joanne Visser Cherylv
4 7 Vegas Diva Alumites Front On, Unshod behind 13:50 20131127 System Charlesb
8 8 Richinstyle Alumites Front On, Unshod behind 13:50 20131127 System Charlesb
9 3 Regal Breeze Blinkers On 07:23 20131202 C Miller Rafs
9 12 Bahama Babe Alumites On 08:10 20131129 J Borman Audreyb
Owner/Colour Changes
Comment Advised Captured
Race 7 No 5 Arak Attack : Mr W G C Miller - Light blue, dark green sleeves and cap (SWE) NHA Audreyb
Other Changes
Comment Advised Captured
J Penny not riding (Sick) & T Appie (Sick) C Lensley / T Appie Audreyb
General Information
Weather Forecast: @08h00: Overcast;
Rain 24 Hours: Nil Rain 7 Days: 4mm Pen Reading: Nil
Irrigation 24 Hours: 2mm Irrigation 7 Days: 13mm Track Cond.: Standard
False Rail Pos.: Nil

(tu)

Thanks again for your jottings English. Monday less blue now. It will take me at least a week to type that many words.(tu)

After a poor weekend .. Race 1 Legend Moon fixed place atc Race 3 Shark Attack fixed place 3.5 / 1...(tu)

Winning Form & Magic Tips Best Bets - Flamingo Park



Summaries to follow shortly

Thanks Englander for that perfect summary of todays race card at Flamingo Park. Here is my likings;
Race 1: Beach Bar ( for the last time) - She's Amazing - value bet Princess Chichibu
Race 2: African Gladiator ( hard to beat) - Eye of the World - value bet Vengence
Race 3: Shark Attack- Stallone - value bet Jagerbomb
Race 4: Astro Vision ( hard to beat) - Reserved Lady - value bet Rainbow Spectrum
Race 5: Cockney Tiger - Foam party - Familiar Chat
Race 6: Sudden Surprise (hard to beat) - Woza Friday - value bet New Circle
Race 7: Hail the wind - Whisper the Wind - value bet Arak Attack
Race 8: Miesque's Critic( will be hard to beat) -Thunderstreak - value bet Run Rorkus Run
Race 9: Regal Breeze - With Passion - value bet Cadilac Baby
Play well Guys

just joined hollywood recently bit confused on how to take thei bipot when i click on the bipot block it opens but dosnt allow me to place selections. if anyone can help will be much appreciated

@ dashing @ select bet type choose pick 6