Quite a tricky (and poor) card with a few course debutants who might make the known course form irrelevant. The real complication though is, not for the first time, the Visser stable. Their horses for the most part seemed to run very flat last week, with the exception of Wings Of An Angel, and the reason(s) for the "limp" performances are, of course, unknown. They have a few runners with chances today if they run to their ability but whether they will or not, who knows? Unless a big price I have decided to pretty much brass them, you may decide otherwise and it will of course be important to watch how their earlier runners perform for possible pointers for the later runners. Von W may have a very good day.
R1 - The trainer's confidence in Legend's Moon on debut certainly should be taken into account, he reportedly stated that he expected a win and consequnetly the horse was heavily backed from 14/1 to 19/10 fav. Was slow away though and was never really able to get into the race. Ran on late but was 5.5l behind Way With Words. Personal choice as to whether you want to carry those trainer comments forward to this run. Lensley's other runner, Cash Crop, on breeding looks a good possibility but, I find it hard to believe he would have given so much confidence about LM only to put in another one to beat her nto. Deserve Me gets a run and also should not be entirely discounted with the breeding suggesting a chance she will enjoy the surface but has taken an 11 week rest. CC and DM are potential small e/w investments for me. The one that nags me most is Tropical Giant. If there was any indicator in the breeding I would have been very keen but trainer/jockey are both in form and they have a 50% success rate over 8 rides. My concern is the low draw and there did seem a preference for high numbers last week. Given the trainer's confidence in LM and that he has the 9 draw I marginaly favour him. LM apart, those with form really don't appeal much although WWW's effort was respectable and the winner won first time out of the maidens... LEGEND'S MOON x TROPICAL GIANT x CASH CROP
R2 - The Vissers have three of the 7 runners here so by brassing them it effectively makes it a 4 runner field. I can't include Mahogany on current stable form. That leaves only three and the obvious one is African Gladiator. He has a 4-2-2 record in 10 c runs (dislodged jockey in the first) and 0-1-1 in his two efforts over c/d. Possibly most effective over shorter but still likely to be hard to beat in this field. He has 10l and 13.5l on Sir Lowry and Capital Gain respectively and has to be the safest option. That said, he is very short in the market and I don't completely discount the other two. Both are in the process of returning from rests, Sir Lowry on 3rd after and Capital Gain on 2nd. SL has probably not been in such poor form in his 33 career runs but, possibly worth noting, he did win last time he was on 3rd run after a rest. I think the more likely to show improvement though and complete a stable exacta is Capital Gain, he seems to have had more excuses of late than SL and his last 4 outings have been over 1800. In two of those runs he was not persevered with and not striding out and those are probably best ignored. Lto was after a 31 week rest and hopefully that will have brought him on. He is 2-2-0 in 4 efforts over c/d and could represent some e/w value... AFRICAN GLADIATOR x CAPITAL GAIN x SIR LOWRY
R3 - Based on her overall lack of consistency only, Katanga makes least appeal of the three who appear closely matched on the run behind Pay Master. Of the other two, I prefer Gemma though there is little to choose between her and stablemate Silken Sea. The one with course experience I prefer though is Credulous who is now on third run after a rest and finished only just behind SS when returning from that rest. On breeding, the two Lensley newcomers to the surface could be worth a small e/w investment as the breeding indicates both could enjoy the sand. But, the final choice goes to Regal Breeze. Fitness is a slight concern but assuming that is not an issue, she has decent turf form and the breeding suggests a good chance of taking to the surface... REGAL BREEZE x CREDULOUS x GEMMA
R4 - Eye Of the World is a consistent campaigner not normally affected by the stable "ups n downs" and if on song, should be competitive. But, I am going to continue with the policy and leave him out today. Another Visser runner Bay Route, has just recently arrived at the stable and was only 4l behind Code Red lto at the Vaal. He did have the better draw though and is only 1.5kg better off on a course CR seems to love. Of the Sham runners, Vestal Virgin seems out of form and I am not convinced that she or stablemate Tudor Star are strong enough to compete with some of the boys here. Island Flyer was a convincing winner in his only attempt at c/d but his other course runs have been disappointing and can be no more than a watching brief for me. Silly Mid On (Brown now up) is better than his last run and has very good records of 3-2-3 in 11 course runs and 2-2-2 in 6 over c/d. Tenacious Tess, presumably the Miller stable's second string, is another with a very respectable course record with 4 wins in her 8 top 3s in 16 runs and won her only c/d attempt. Both should give decent accounts of themselves. They should be challenging for places and are not completely out of it either imo. The main battle though could come down to Code Red and Kingofmountain, both strong and consistent performers. The latter has had just the better of their recent encounters (except over 1200) and at the distance I have a very marginal preference for KoM again despite another wide draw... KINGOFMOUNTAIN x CODE RED x TENACIOUS TESS
R5 - Wings Of An Angel was the only Visser runner last week who performed and was backed to do so. She was though comfortably beaten in her penultimate run over c/d by Lady Cozzene. WOAA now has a worse draw than she had then and is 1.5kgs worse off. LC is on 3rd run after a rest. There is a Visser runner here though that is of a little interest given the prices. Top Talent has not shown much in her three course runs but they have all been from relatively wide draws and she is much better drawn here in 6. Given that she was never the most consistent on the Vaal sand but has won over this distance at that venue she may be worth an R1 e/w idiot bet. Glamazon is another I would not be completely surprised with if a much improved run were to be seen back at this distance with the 3 box. Pole Dance is not without a chance but has another high draw and returns from a 10 week rest. It would also seem that Desert Breeze is the stable elect. Well drawn in 2 and far from disgraced when a 6l 7th (only 1.25l behind the runner-up) on course (and stable) debut lto. That run came off a 14 week break and she was drawn 14/14 over 1200. Assuming that run brings her on and there is no 2nd run after a rest syndrome then I think there is a good chance she will improve enough to be very competitive here. Although LC makes plenty of appeal I think DB may be the right one... DESERT BREEZE x LADY COZZENE x TOP TALENT
R6 - Not the strongest of fields and although 7 of the field make very little appeal, if any of them were to improve and perform on the day then a shock is very possible. Chisler showed a lot of improvement lto and finished only 0.1l behind Que Sera Sera over c/d. Chisler is 0.5kgs better off and, if it makes a difference, appears to have a swing with the draw benefit. Brown retains the ride whereas Greyling is now up on QSS. Not much to choose between them but my marginal preference is for Chisler. The only other one that interests me is his stablemate and seemingly second string Imperani. For me he might represent the e/w value in the race. He was disappointing lto on 2nd run after coming out of the maidens but it is possible he struggled that day from the draw and his three runs prior to that one had been respectable. He was a decent 4th in his penultimate run with the 5th winning since and he has the 1 draw here. If the last run is ignored then I think he has a fair chance in this field and could be worth chancing e/w... IMPERANI x CHISLER x QUE SERA SERA
R7 - Count Dumani started his career on the Vaal sand and after early success with a silver followed by 2 wins his form disappeared and a sequence of 7 course losses followed and only once did he get within 10l of the winner. He was then tried here and did win on his second run but the other 5 runs met with heavy defeats with the last visit over two years ago. He could well win but given the short price, a 17 week break and his overall poor record on the sand I'll look for value elsewhere. Restraint Of Trade won his maiden on his course debut in his penultimate run with the second and fourth winning nto. He followed that with a respectable, running on 4th over 1200. He has a chance but another high draw. Stablemates Beepbeep and Milkwood Manor also are not completely without hope. The Shams have two runners and both also have a chance. Weather Eye has performed well since arriving 5 runs back but has a wide draw. My preference is for With Passion who finished well over 1200 lto and was drawn high in his last attempt at this distance when seemingly held by some of these rivals but that may change now he has the 1 box... WITH PASSION x WEATHER EYE x RESTRAINT OF TRADE
R8 - Sudden Surprise beat a very decent field last week in a very "strange" race over 1000 where most of those filling the top positions had low draws but came across and still managed to get up. Something tells me not to take too much notice of the race but that can't take away from SS's win. Khumalo retains the ride and the extra 200 should be no problem. King Air may well enjoy the surface but has a wide draw of 9 to contend with. His latest turf run was disappointing given it was on good ground and he has only one silver in 7 attempts at the distance Still, he can't be discounted. Wind At Your Back may recapture better form on 3rd run after a rest with the pacifiers off but he seems held by SS and a watching brief for me. A couple of bigger priced ones that interest me a little are Sunley Simola and Nippy Nathan. Sunley has shown little on her 2 course runs to date but I think she may be better than that and the breeding does suggest she may like the surface, I will have a very small e/w just on the slim chance she does show improvement on her 3rd run on course. Similarly, NN has not produced much since winning his maiden 5 runs back but with the appie giving him a low weight and with the 1 draw he could surprise. Again, if he goes a big price, then I will have a small e/w nibble. Stablemate Badi made a respectable course debut lto when beaten 5l over 1400 when pulling hard. That came off an 18 week rest and if coming on for that run then he could be thereabouts. I don't really have a lot of confidence in this race (or any of them for that matter lol), Sudden Surprise is the obvious one but can he repeat last week's effort with the extra weight? I won't be doing him in a bet as a single but... SUDDEN SURPRISE x BADI x KING AIR
R9 - The most important thing with this race could be the opening race on the card and seeing if there is a draw bias. My current selection is drawn low but if high numbers seem favoured then Mapoggo might be preferred. Not an easy race and not going to say much as the draw could change it all and I have had enough now anyway lol!... TRANSCENDENT x DERBAAS x MAPOGGO
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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