The Vaal Sand 28/9/13

Hidalgo Wrote:

---

> IN A RUSH:D
>
> Believe in the trainer, believe in the jock,
> believe in the horse.......just love the price!!!
>
> Lots of butterflies in the stomach, having a
> captain beside the fire in the hospitable Vaal.
> Looking forward to 2morrow. Gonna be a privilege
> and honour to stand in that ring. I am sure he'll
> make us proud.
Will gooi something , enjoy and good luck!

Hidalgo Wrote:

---

> IN A RUSH:D
>
> Believe in the trainer, believe in the jock,
> believe in the horse.......just love the price!!!
>
> Lots of butterflies in the stomach, having a
> captain beside the fire in the hospitable Vaal.
> Looking forward to 2morrow. Gonna be a privilege
> and honour to stand in that ring. I am sure he'll
> make us proud.

Hildago
All the best with your runner. Have a good night's sleep and let the celebrations begin.

Thanks guys - Gavin really got him in Tip Top shape. I gotta fancy his chances @ the weights, good draw, bit of luck....who knows. Thanks for the good wishes and see you 2 morrow!!!

Good luck Hidalgo , we will be shouting him home for you boss

My real roughies for tomorrow
Sole mio
Decameron
Yukon gold
Mr Tobin- places

G2 Emerald Cup
catch the VAR if the can..he broke his maiden by a street!(tu) after all it is trained by the "MASTER"

Hope he runs well for you Hidalgo and have a great day whatever (tu)

The form guide I use has not been fully updated so have less confidence than usual but managed to do a few scribblings on the first six races...

Race 1 - MDK's Nicklaus must have a good chance if taking to the surface but nothing in the breeding tells me he definitely will and has a somewhat tough draw in 9. Dynamite has obvious claims based on his relatively easy success on debut here in fairly decent company, Marcus up and, after the scratching, is drawn in poll. Every chance of confirming. Could be wrong of course but for various reasons, I find it hard to see the other "market leaders" beating him. Indeed, with Stravinsky drawn wide in 11 and, on a line through Passion Pleaser over 1200, it may be that Pinot Noir has the beating of Storm Incoming. So, for e/w, places, quartets etc I'm looking at the bigger priced ones and for me there is possible potential in three of them. Of those with sand experience, I think the aforementioned Pinot Noir might perform well. His run on the 11th June was decent and his last 2 efforts over c/d have been against stronger and he was drawn widest on both occasions. Not sure 1000 suits him so (conveniently lol) looking past the Magi Moto run (though even that run does not put him that far away from Stravinsky). Gets a chance to prove he is better than those runs from a draw of 4. And a couple of sand debutants should also perhaps not be ignored. Mystic Jet makes both sand and stable debut. There is nothing in the breeding to say he will definitely perform on the sand but, given the form of Naidoo at this venue recently, it is interesting to me that he has chosen to run him here first. The other is Winter Passing who on breeding may enjoy the sand. Hopefully any issues have been resolved and his last turf run may have brought him on from a 23 week rest, trainer in excellent form as is the appie jockey who takes a little weight off. DYNAMITE x PINOT NOIR x MYSTIC JET

Race 2. I can't see past Georgia On My Mind here but I am still not convinced she will win simply because she is returning from a 12 week. That said, one has to assume Naidoo has made his plan and being in good form at the moment it is probably best to simply trust in his judgement. Lerena booked and drawn ok in 5. Negev is the quality turf horse here and it is possible Louis has done a lot of preparation work with her with this race in mind but, she was poor on her only other visit to the course, albeit against a host of previous winners, and although she has the 2 box and Striker up she has a huge mass to carry. For one that has yet to convince on the surface, I just can't persuade myself to take the risk. The remainder though don't appear to me to amount to a whole lot of competition. Of those with experience of the sand, All In The Mind might run best, respectable effort behind Tayba and drawn in poll. On breeding Schooner could be a threat from an ok draw and Khumalo up but I am not convinced the Tarry stable is firing on all cylinders at the moment and he has been off 21 weeks which immediately followed a 10 week rest. GEORGIA ON MY MIND x ALL IN THE MIND x SCHOONER

Race 3. Minefield. Plenty must have a shout on form and/or breeding and extremely difficult to back any with confidence imo. Numbers 8, 9, 10 and 12 I can't see winning at all. Add to that Boarding Call but I might have a nibble if the price is huge. Crown Bearer very unlikely, the form just doesn't look strong enough to me. American Pie, breeding suggests a possibility of liking the surface but double rest and seemingly not stable elect. And now that just leaves numbers 1 to 6. Arcetri Pink, possibly stable elect but not tested on the surface and the breeding does not confirm to me whether she will like the surface or not but combo to be respected. Not Sulking, Marcus up but possibly not stable elect and, though over shorter, looks held by Tiger Quest and comes off a 12 week rest. Tiger Quest, won well over 1200 on c debut here 3 runs back but, although 3rd and 4th have won since, perhaps not the strongest of fields that day and last two turf runs seem below par. Winter Darling, sand debut and breeding seems to suggest a fair chance she will take to the surface, won maiden well on the turf lto. Those four all have a chance imo but the two who I think might fight out the finish are MDK's Glenshee and LG's She's A Tiger. Both by Tiger Ridge, I am going to go with SAT for two reasons, firstly she has experience of the course whereas Glenshee will be competing on the sand for the first time and secondly, there were 2 other well backed debutants that day from the Lucky H and Magner stables and SAT beat them by 3l and 3.5l respectively. SHE'S A TIGER x GLENSHEE x WINTER DARLING

Race 4. For the third consecutive race LG must have a chance of success. Shepherd's Song is not without hope, heavily supported on debut but possibly not helped by the draw that day. But, with PS up on Trip Tease then it must be assumed this one is favoured. And almost certainly rightly so, winning his maiden run here by 9.25l after also finding heavy support. It would be a brave man to back against him but, I'm feeling brave lol TT must have an outstanding chance but he is relatively short in the market and there are plenty of other contenders. Of the sand debutants... Sole Mio is sent down by MDK but no indication from the breeding that he will be one that likes the sand. Campbell Black represents the Spies yard and the breeding suggests it quite possible he will like the surface. More so though with Azzie's Francois P and if he drifts in the betting, I will take a small e/w nibble. Of those who visited the course before both Tiger Territory and Gold Prospector have solid claims. The latter is seemingly the money horse, is 2/2 over c/d and in good style but I am much more taken by the form of Tiger T and I think he is a real danger to the fav and my e/w choice in the race. TIGER TERRITORY x TRIP TEASE x FRANCOIS P

Race 5. There is a little in the breeding to suggest Top Command may go on the surface but comes off a 22 week rest and not convinced about the stable currently. It is a similar story regarding the breeding with Red Barrel and a combination of MDK and Marcus is formidable but they are drawn widest. Decameron looks well held by Panjo. Newton Power looks to be held by Killua Castle and though closely matched with Panjo on that run, the latter is the one who probably had excuses that day and could run better here imo. Aces High has a chance but I think that there are a few here who are better. On collateral form, AH has been beaten 10l by Divine Invitation whereas Panjo has finished 12.25l infront of DI, whatever the possible contributory factors etc, that is a big margin for AH to recover. Panjo's performances seem to be hugely affected by the draw but, he is drawn in the middle here so who knows what affect that might have. In his 6 sand starts to date he has been drawn in 1 on three occasions and in the one of the two widest berths on the other 3 occasions, losing ground from the stalls on two of those wide starts. When drawn wide he has beaten Decameron 0.5l and suffered a 4,75l defeat to Baron Zemo. When drawn 1 he has beaten Decameron 6l and Baron Zemo by 2l. Both 6-7l turnaounds and he has 7l to find with Killua Castle here and is 2.5kg better off. On his last run KC definitely looks the one to beat but he has not always been the best away recently and if there is a recurrence of that syndrome then his chances of following up would certainly significantly diminish. Eugenes is also a lively contender imo. Has won under Lerena over c/d previously and now seems a lot more consistent. The main concern is the big weight he has to carry but he ran a very good 2nd over c/d three runs back and has every right to be thereabouts at the finish. With possible questions against the three market leaders, I think he might represent some e/w value. EUGENES x PANJO x KILLUA CASTLE

Race 6. Open contest where I ruled out only Size Does Count, just does not look good enough compared to some of these, only sand effort to date was a disaster and drawn widest. I would not be surprised if any of the other 8 won. Rivulet may struggle from the 8 box coming off an 11 week rest and dropping in trip. Breeding suggests Dolomiti might enjoy the surface but as mentioned in earlier races, not convinced the Tarry stable it at its best at the moment. Break of Dawn and Flitter have both only visited the track once and both finished decent seconds. BOD represents Pettigrew/MVR and Flitter GVZ/Strydom. Both could be contesting the finish. The Moffat stable's form could be on the up and they send out a sand debutant in Music Affair, the breeding suggests that he might take to the sand and if so could well be competitive. Strictly speaking Tomorrow's Miss looks held by Formation but it wouldn't be the biggest reversal in form ever should it happen. Rebel Queen also looks held on that same run behind Magic Smoke but has performed better than that in the past. Formation looks like he is gradually returning to his best. I think Formation might just win but definitely not guaranteed and the price is short. The best e/w shout might be BOD who has won 2/3 since his sand run, from which the third and fourth have both won since, and Tomorrow's Miss who for a few lengths to make up with Formation is a decent price at 16/1... FORMATION x BREAK OF DAWN x TOMORROW'S MISS

Race 7 - 7 CAPE WINTER x 6 BE ASSURED x 2 YUKON GOLD
Race 8 - 1 PYLON x 2 UNCLE TOMMY x 11 TAYBA (very open, don't discount the debutant 10 Tiger's Retreat)
Race 9 - 3 HENRY HIGGINS x 4 SAFE HOUSE x 7 MAORI BLUE (Idiot 9 RAKAAN)
Race 10 - 9 IKATI x 1 KINEMATIC COUNTESS x 2 EUPHORIA x 4 WAR PATH

Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)

GO T0 THE BANK HENRY HIGGINS. VALUE BET IN THE 2ND TACIT. TIGER

Race 1, MR80; #4 NICKLAUS; import, hot jock/trainer combo, lightly raced, easy winner last time; ask for 5's.

Race 2, MR83; #1 NEGEV; hot jock/trainer combo, nice draw, easy winner last time; mostly pish this field; ask for 7/2.

Race 3, Sophomore Fillies; #5 GLENSHEE; hot jock/trainer combo, lightly raced, easy winner last time; ask for 10's.. #1 ARCETRI PINK; very classy, weighted to win by over 2 lengths; nap.

Race 4, drink

Race 5, MR94; #1 RED BARREL; classy, hot Marcus rides, hot de Kock trains, easy winner last time; ask for 4's.

Race 6, Emerald Fillies; #8 DOLOMITI; impressive beating a subsequent winner in penultimate start, lightly raced; ask for 9/2.

Race 7, Hampton; #2 YUKON GOLD; impressive win in penultimate start; hot Striker rides; ask for 5's.

Race 8, Emerald Cup; #1 PYLON; impressive and easy last time, on a hat-trick, hot Gavin rides; ask for 9's.

Race 9, Vaal River Handicap; #1 EASTERN COBBLER; beat a subsequent winner last start, hot Gavin rides; ask for 8's.

Race 10, another drink.

Prosperous punting
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My play for today
tacit Tiger
Rebel queen
yukon gold
Kinematic countess
Uncle tommy

Big quartet payouts expected
Rove Storm Surf

Tayba will be first three Cup - TRIP TEASE won so easy on debut - i would take the 5-2 - KILLUA CASTLE is a pa banker - Break Of Dawn is great e/w value from that draw(she should be handy and Van Rensburg is excellent at the Vaal) Respect Rock The Country in race 9 . War Path will go close in the last while DALALAAT is my place bet in the second