R3 None of the first timers to the course make any particular appeal. Of those with experience Sweet Lyrics and Black Magic Women appear held. Rolling Ruby could be improving and was staying on over 1000 when 3rd behind Styling on course debut. Chance. Tell My Star (SJG/Fradd) has a silver and bronze from two visits to the course and there is seemingly little between her and Irish Lace. The two were close up behind Shreya's Angel last time with IL, running on strongly on course debut, finishing 0.75l ahead of TMS. Both have better draws this time and are likely to be thereabouts at the finish. The final choice though goes to the Spies/Chambers representative, Five Rings, who I think is the best value. Comes off a 27 week rest which is an obvious concern but on his course debut run he finished 0.25l behind Bee-Tee-Em and that came off a 19 week rest. Subsequently well beaten over 1450 but that seems to have come amid a loss of form for reasons unknown but if the rest again works the oracle then could be the right one. Selection... Five Rings x Irish Lace x Tell My Star
R4 Interesting contest. A few with decent sand form overall but perhaps not in the best recent form and a couple of other potential contenders too but quite a few with an obvious chance have drawn badly. Tayba (de Kock) may well take to the surface on breeding, has inform appie Mariba up and despite the 11 draw is likely to be a lively contender but no guarantees and at 6/4 I'll look elsewhere. Margot On Stage made no impression on her only sand run and Rooi Nooi disappointed after a rest last time and is drawn 14, watching brief for me. All In The Mind also disappointed last time but that run came amid a dip in form and recent turf efforts have been good. She showed when winning her sand debut that the surface is no problem and with a light weight and drawn better than most is likely to be thereabouts. Malaga Belle (Zaki/Fradd) was not disgraced on her only sand run but I think has something to find. There are three that imo potentially represent some value. Raise The Bar is difficult to assess, not at best running over further on the sand of late, last time over the c and d she won. Compared to others, 8 is not the worst draw, is 3-1-1 in 9 c and d runs and is over 50% top 3 at both course and over the distance. Rebel Queen (Spies/Chambers) has been below form in recent starts but returns to 1200 after an 11 week rest which may have refreshed her. She has won 4 times plus two places in 7 distance runs, is 2-2-2 in 7 course runs and 1-1-1 over c and d. Drawn 1 here and that could be a big advantage. The final, very tentative, choice though is Dalalaat. Consistent if not spectacular in recent runs but gets an ok draw in 5 and has competent appie Penny up resulting in a very light weight. Has been running over further but comes back to 1200 here, 2-2-2 in 10 distance runs, 1-1-1 over c and d and 1-1-2 in 6 course visits. Selection for a value trifecta... Dalalaat x Rebel Queen x Raise The Bar
R5 Sermon has a very respectable overall record but from the 12 draw I will pass today. Croke Park was much improved on his second course run last time out, Zackey gets Strydom up, has an ok draw in 7 and may be better suited to the extra 250, appears to have a good chance. Opening Salvo finally got out of the maidens with a fairly impressive win, has a decent draw and the inform Mariba aboard for SJG, but will find this much tougher. Velddrifter has a little appeal in the breeding plus a decent draw. Itsgottobeperfect returns to the sand for the first time since winning his maiden over 1200 on course debut, recent turf efforts appear weak but worth noting they have all been from very poor draws, the sand may reignite him but unfortunately again poorly drawn in 11. White Squall has a low weight and is 8kgs better off with Baron Zemo for a 2.5l beating, also had the worst draw that day and is much better off at 6 here. Passion Pleaser was a further 0.5l behind and is now 3.5kgs off with BZ, also gets a better draw this time, moving from the 9 to the 3. It has been a long time since PP has had a decent draw on the sand and may improve for it, beat O Salvo by over 2ls from a bad draw when coming out of the maidens. BZ comes back to the 1450 over which he won that race 3 runs back. On face value his last 2 runs over 1600 were disappointing but they were against some decent sand performers and in the most recent he was only 4 lengths off the second. He was also well beaten over 1600 prior to his winning run over 1450. That said, one of his conquerors was Shadow Line and Panjo gave that one stiffer competition. BZ has the 1 box here but my main concern was his winning time, a full 4 seconds slower than that of Panjo who was slowly away when doing the time, though Panjo is much higher in the weights now. That said, everything to me says Panjo is the best horse in the race, possibly by some way. Ligeti has finished 3 lengths ahead of WS, Panjo beat Ligeti by over 6ls. Panjo won somewhat impressively from a poor draw over c and d on sand debut despite being slowly away and followed that with a good second last time to Shadow Line who looks to be a very decent sand performer. He has an even worse draw today but Fradd gets up and if he can get him into position Panjo must be a big runner. Very open race with possibilities aplenty. Selection... Panjo x Croke Park x Itsgottobeperfect
R6 Dragon Veil has gone MIA of late and not a proposition for me at the moment. Although a smallish field Caryls Law and D G's Boy don't appeal, DGs has beaten Henry Higgins on turf but its a different proposition on sand. There is a little in the breeding to suggest Avenue Of Gold may take to the surface but this will be a big ask against some very decent sand runners. Of the remainder, I am leaving out Hunter Valley as he was soundly beaten by Henry Higgins last time and in 6 runs under Greyling, HV has not finished within 9 lengths of the winning horse, "records" are there to be broken but I'll wait until it happens on this one. That leaves a confident trifecta of Henry Higgins, Rivulet and Silver Specialist. Chambers and SS seem a good combination but they have gone for weight off here and appie Thabana climbs aboard, this gives SS a 7.5kg pull for a 6l beating by HH last time they met. For me, I still think it will be tough for him to beat the other two. Rivulet is 2-2-2 in 8 course runs and 1-2-1 in 4 c and d efforts. no reason to suspect he will not run another big race but he in turn may find HH too strong. Striker retains the ride and has a perfect record aboard in 3 c and d runs. HH was second in his only other c and d run and has 4 wins in 9 top 3 finishes in 11 course visits, extremely consistent and often seems to have a little in hand when winning. Selection Henry Higgins x Rivulet x Silver Specialist
Partner is demanding a little of my time so finishing quick lol...
R7 Kings Joy x Kruger Gold x Kudos (no KKK jokes please!! lol)
R8 Gabronza x Maji Moto x Shine Tiger (look out for Virtuosity!)
Decent card, competitive and interesting, better than those of late at the venue imo. Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Gustav....(tu)(tu) 
-
