Vaal Tuesday

Thanks Madji and OR very happy with the run we are happy that he ran a good race again.

Loopy Logic Wrote:

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> Frodo Wrote:
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> > ShezaPunter Wrote:
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> > > @Loopy, how would on work out intent?
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> > You guess if the stable has the intent to win ?
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> YEs Frodo, there is certain indication that does
> not make it guessing completely, more the
> intentions of the Trainer/stable/Jockeys to
> perform on the night based on the FULL card...
> read like a story book (almost) the there is a
> certain link between races ( you might think I am
> just talking bull but have a look at past results
> and spot the many patterns during a night for a
> trainer... by analysing the data through software
> it of rules with weighting vs previous weeks
> results it shows these "patterns"
>
> Race 6 1200 AMR 65:
> going back to 11 Sept 2012 and 22 Sept 2012
> 11sept: backed 14into12 AMR66 carrying 55,5kg. 2nd
> by 0,75 lengths. on that run today AMR65 should
> carry +0,5 = 56.. lost by 0,75 lenghst -2 for 2
> kgs it carries less today (54) gives it a chance
> to finish 1st at the post vs similar AMR quality
> if it ran the same form as that day shoudl win by
> 0,75-2,0=1,25lenghs ... then followed it up a Vaal
> sand 22Sep & on Vaal 02 Oct.. comments on
> Computaform last run says "Handy - no finish...
> perhaps it intentionally had no finish... maybe
> not... but being coupled adn just before the
> strong fancied Powerjet from BRown stable in the
> 7th.. have to in the JP for me... intent is surely
> there.. which it showed and LJ duly performed the
> double... intentional IMO


Thanks for the explanation - I'm not really convinced about the 'patterns / intent' being shown up by a software 'package/program' - but if that's what you believe, I don't want to argue - perhaps if you have the time you can present us with some of the cases where you believe a 'pattern' can be / has been highlighted.

Back to the matter of Jumbo - if one looked that far back (11 Sep) in the form (and it paid off for you doing that), on that day he did run to his MR of 67 on my ratings - so he has actually come down 5 points to 62 yesterday - so with hindsight I agree that he needed inclusion (even in the JP) if one were going wide (but still hard to see him turn around a 5.75 length beating with Gemm Street on a 4 kg swing in the weights) - where I disagree is that his win had anything to do with Power Jet in the next race, or that the stable actually 'intended' to win with him - Jumbo drifted from 20/1 to start 28/1 - (while his stable companion Eagle Face shortened from 10/1 to 7/1)

Anyway well done again on catching a very nice JP and PA -D