Vaal Sand Thursday

For Peekay.

NATIONAL RACING BUREAU (031)-314 1777
SCRATCHING AND CHANGES FOR - VAAL SAND, THURSDAY , 28 FEBRUARY 2013
Generated : THURSDAY , 28 FEBRUARY 2013 as at 10h40

RACE # HORSE # HORSE NAME REASON TIME DATE ADV ADVISED

SCRATCHINGS:

2 3 City Of Bells Coughing 09h12 27-FEB-13 Mike Azzie
2 5 Eugenes Off feed 09h12 27-FEB-13 Mike Azzie
3 16 Jamaican Jet Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
3 15 Grey And Sons Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
4 10 Nautical Adventure Lame near fore 08h31 26-FEB-13 Bertie van der
4 9 Maybe Baby Off feed 07h35 28-FEB-13 Brett Webber
5 14 Fiery Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
5 9 Woodland Fire Insufficient recovery time 17h49 27-FEB-13 David Nieuwenhu
6 14 Atonement Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
6 13 Sucha Wonder Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
7 13 Blue Concorde Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
7 14 Danesco Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
8 13 Slightly Blonde Reserve Runner 08h17 28-FEB-13 System
9 4 Lady Tamara Insufficient recovery time 08h04 26-FEB-13 Coerie Lensley
9 12 Lyford Cay Injured wither 14h41 27-FEB-13 Gavin van Zyl

RESERVE RUNNERS:


JOCKEY CHANGES:

1 9 For Your Eyes Only To Be Ridden By: ............... 09h20 27-FEB-13 System
1 6 My Silver Heart To Be Ridden By: * W. Marwing (-4.00 kg) 08h43 26-FEB-13 C Spies
2 8 Kruger Gold To Be Ridden By: R Simons (+0.50 kg) 08h47 28-FEB-13 H Adamson
2 1 Mr Tobin To Be Ridden By: P Strydom 12h35 27-FEB-13 S Tarry
2 6 Funny Glory To Be Ridden By: * A Aucharuz (-2.50 kg) 08h01 28-FEB-13 R Francis
3 10 Diezel To Be Ridden By: * W. Marwing (-4.00 kg) 10h27 27-FEB-13 Coenie de Beer
3 3 Opening Salvo To Be Ridden By: D David 08h08 28-FEB-13 St John Gray
3 6 Barbados To Be Ridden By: F Naude 09h35 27-FEB-13 Dianne Stenger
4 15 Noble Wind To Be Ridden By: F Naude 08h34 28-FEB-13 Coenie de Beer
4 1 Dragon Fay To Be Ridden By: G Wrogemann 07h41 28-FEB-13 R Magner
5 8 Hurricane Velvet To Be Ridden By: S Brown 07h42 28-FEB-13 R Magner
5 13 Miravar To Be Ridden By: K Zechner 07h43 28-FEB-13 Mike Azzie
5 11 Planet Queen To Be Ridden By: F Naude 10h24 27-FEB-13 C de Beer
6 2 Ohiki Bay To Be Ridden By: G Wrogemann 09h47 27-FEB-13 Lance Wiid
7 7 Napoleon Dynamite To Be Ridden By: R Danielson 13h01 22-FEB-13 Kumaran Naidoo
9 17 Lady Lavan To Be Ridden By: E Pheiffer 08h07 26-FEB-13 Corne Spies
9 2 First Winter To Be Ridden By: B Lerena 10h15 23-FEB-13 Gavin van Zyl
9 3 Bay Princess To Be Ridden By: D David 10h14 23-FEB-13 Gavin van Zyl

EQUIPMENT CHANGES:

4 6 Lead By Approval Blinkers On Tongue Ties On 07h55 28-FEB-13 T Zackey
5 7 For Freluche Tongue Ties On 07h37 28-FEB-13 Nicholas Ithier
6 12 Zephyr Breeze Blinkers Off 09h42 27-FEB-13 B van der Merwe
9 3 Bay Princess Blinkers On 10h07 23-FEB-13 Gavin van Zyl

OWNER/COLOUR CHANGES:

Race 3 No 4 Tornado Twister: Owners- Messrs K R Chapman & St John D Gray
Cols- Orange, Green Sleeves, Orange Armband, Green Cap.

OTHER CHANGES:

Not riding : G Lerena - Suspended (27-01March 2013) NHA

ADDITIONAL FORM & CHANGES:

1 2 Spanish Victory V 744 20130221 (G) 1400 S Chambers 60.0 ( 66) A 13-13 2 2.25 Eccentric Model 60.0 83.87 12/1 18/1
3 10 Diezel Tn 764 20130226 (G) 1600 S Brown 60.0 ( 54) A 12-14 2 4.25 Rand Club 60.0 99.31 33/1 16/1
4 7 Richard's Grace V 746 20130221 (G) 1600 S Chambers 60.0 ( 58) B A 1-14 9 12.25 Southern Taste 60.0 97.01 12/1 8/1
4 15 Noble Wind Tn 769 20130226 (G) 2000 F Naude 60.0 ( 49) A 10-14 3 11.00 Lucky Gambler 60.0 128.50 25/1 55/1
5 3 Rebel Queen V 749 20130221 (G) 1200 S Chambers 59.0 ( 77) A 10-13 1 0.75 Dalalaat 59.0 69.79 7/1 8/1
6 12 Zephyr Breeze t 760 20130223 (G) 1600 E Pheiffer 56.0 ( 58) B a 12-14 12 9.50 True Imperium 59.5 99.54 14/1 20/1
6 10 Tobe's Lass Ys 190 20130225 (G) 1200 S Chambers 60.5 ( 69) A 2-13 2 0.50 Kate's Emblem 60.0 73.84 16/10 33/10 F
7 10 Dennis The Menace V 750 20130221 (G) 1200 N Juglall 53.5 ( 79) A 3-11 4 2.60 Francois Bernardus 58.5 68.72 10/1 9/1
8 8 Hotel Royale V 749 20130221 (G) 1200 C Thabana 56.0 ( 73) A 8-13 7 4.00 Rebel Queen 59.0 70.51 33/1 28/1
8 3 Keen Smartly Ys 188 20130225 (G) 1600 F Naude 55.0 ( 87) A 1- 9 7 14.25 Eye Of The World 61.0 102.09 6/1 11/1
9 17 Lady Lavan Ys 189 20130225 (G) 1800 T Pretorius 52.0 ( 52) B A 10-11 6 13.00 Kahal's Secret 61.0 116.21 25/1 45/1

UNRACED IN P6 AND JACKPOT:

Race No 4, No 17, Fort Dixy

GENERAL INFORMATION:

Weather:

@08h00: Partly Cloudy, North Easterly 3kph Crosswind; @12h00: ; @16h00:
RAIN 24 HOURS: Nil, RAIN 7 DAYS: 9mm, PENETROMETER READING: Nil
IRRIGATION 24 HOURS: , IRRIGATION 7 DAYS: 1.476.000 Litres
TRACK CONDITION: Standard, FALSE RAIL POSITION: Nil

Thanks Mu(Shrek) (tu)

Was not going to post as the thread is meant for 'sand specialist' (read 'shrek') - but I'll give it a go anyway.

R2: Magic Smoke looks very hard to beat at these weights and 12/10 not bad odds imo.

R3: Seneschal does not have to be a star to win this - still for me I'd raher back him up in the PA with Tornado Twister who is improving and should be right there over this trip from pole position and Roaming in Rome, who is very moderate but should also place if saved for that last 200 - for a roughie to run into the quartets considere Beza - good draw and Goldkeepers usually not too bad on the sand.

R4: Dragon Fay also looks very hard to beat, but is very short imo - so for me I'd rather bank him in a small P6; for the places obviously Badger's Quest and maybe Noble Wind, who ran ok in his pinultimate on the sand and also placed on Tuesday night.

R5: Competitve fillies and mares handicap - nothing much between Canta Libre and Beautiful Dawn, but both have wide draws to beat; Water Music has a better draw, but the strength of that maiden win still a question mark for me; so I like Second Edition who looks very well in here on her pinultimate run behind Cold Approach; another roughie to consider is For Freluche, who has some good KZN form and may take to the sand

R6: Flying Foo is better than rated imo, but the 1200 is a worry for me. Many looking to take advantage should she not see it out, including Ohiki Bay (if she likes the sand), Georgia on my Mind (apprentice allowance negates the increase in MR but drawn wide), Udumo (Kahal's usually loves the sand), Hard to Resist (new stable - could improve from a good draw), Boujis (fair run on the sand), Catalonia (may improve) and Laid Back (has won this trip, but drawn wide)

R7: Very competitve Autumn Sand Sprint, where Napolean Dynamite is the logical favourite and should be right there again; a few of the other contenders could have their work cut out from wide draws - Calanish, Mythical Palace and Boss Cat (who does looks really well in here at the weights) - so I'm also considering Prime Mover and Commisioner Street from good draws; not sure about Larussa on the sand against this the boys in this class.

R8: Ikati looks really well in here, has run ok over the 1200 last year this time, so is my narrow first choice from Smart Girl who is ideally suited to this trip; imo Raise the Bar and especially Solarium have lots to find at these weights - I'm including the Tarry coupling in my P6 - even though they have both drawn wide.

R9: A trappy fillies and mares 78 handicap to finish - draws not that crucial over the 1800 imo, so Scarletto could be the right one here; First Winter should give some cheek after a fair maiden win and for a roughie maybe Vivid can return to the form which saw here finishing 2nd to Waley's Camp last year (comfortably holding Rivulet on that run)

Enjoy (tu)

OK Frodo here goes. It has been a long 2 week break from the Sand but I am hoping my luck can turn around today.

I really fancy 3 horses today but will take cover on 2 of them in the PA. In Race 7 I make Boss Cat a massive runner today, even though drawn wide he have overcome that a few times over the C & D. He was in need of his last run and still put in an excellent effort behind Napoleon Dynamite and has placed 8 out of 9 times over the C & D. Before Boss Cat's break he beat Mythical Palace by 0,75 length and is 10,5 kg's better off. I make him a big runner and the 6/1 looks great value.

In Race 8 Ikati for me is the best bet of the day. Has a good draw, very well in with Solarium (I prefer over 1000m) 5,5kg's better off for a 0,75 length loss. Ikati will be running on at the end of the race and be picking them off as they tire in front. 33/10 a very nice price.

In Race 9 I quite fancy First Winter, was impressive on debut when winning as she liked, from the 1 draw if allowed a soft lead will dictate and be hard to peg back. Gavin Van Zyl is having plenty of success on this surface and I believe that this one could follow up on her eas maiden victory. I am taking cover in the PA here as I hate going out in the last leg and as she has only had one start on the surface will need to repeat her maiden win as is up against some serious hard knockers. Again 9/2 looks a very nice price. Does anyone want to take a bet with me the on course presenters will say she will have it all to do giving weight to 2 and 3 time winners. <

They will be my EW Patent.

My PA today is for R360:
Leg 1: 4,8
Leg 2: 1
Leg 3: 1,4,5
Leg 4: 1,5,11
Leg 5: 1,5,6,7
Leg 6: 11
Leg 7: 1,2,5,6,16

Play well. (tu)

Jottings...

R1 First timer Lightning Lady has been well supported and has a decent draw. Trainer in relatively decent form. Could be an e/w bet. Favourite Daughter looks best of those with sand form but I would be surprised if one of those new to the sand does not prove better so it looks a bit of a gamble whatever you choose. Van Loveren is too short for me, Spanish Victory could be the one but I'll side with National Lady who does appear slightly better bred for the sand and has PS up.

R2 Some very good sand horses competing. I like Magic Smoke at the weights and from the 1 box. Pylon and Mr Tobin to fill the places with Uncle Tommy not far off.

R3 Another supported first time in Seneschal and stable in excellent form. I have a gut feeling he will win but the draw could be better. The competition does not look great to me and of them I prefer Roaming in Rome to Tornado Twister. Hobbs Flight for quartet.

R4 Hard to oppose Dragon Fay. One for value in an exacta and one I will have a small e/w on is Noble Wind who seems to have had issues and was running on for 3rd over 1600 last time. Not badly drawn and a very light weight. For the trifecta I'll go with Badger's Quest.

R5 A lot of the more fancied runners are poorly drawn and I think that might give Water Music a decent e/w chance at the drifting price. The form may not be great but she was a facile winner in an ok time over c and d last time, the 3 draw may be enough for her. Despite the average/poor draw I'll take Beautiful Dawn and Cante Libre to be thereabouts. An absolute idiot... Planet Queen. Shown nothing at the Vaal but does have Kimberley form from a few runs back. Light weight, box 1. Poorly drawn for both runs over 1400 and dislodged jock last time. At 66s and 8 a place, one or two rand won't hurt... think I've said that before somewhere

R6 Flying Foo... would like to prove itself over this distance before I take the current price. I'm going to take a small idiot e/w on the seemingly well bred for sand and well drawn Udomo. From the 1 box Ohiki Bay could be a threat if taking to the sand but trainer does not appear to be firing. Tobe's Lass has very poor course form but might threaten from 3 and a complete idiot (though it has moved from 50s to 20s I think) is Hard To Resist, who takes a huge drop in distance.

R7 I was quite impressed with Napoleon Dynamite's last run and make it my best bet of the day from a decent draw. Commissioner Street may well be bridesmaid again and the consistent Boss Cat could be good enough to defy the poor draw for a place. A complete idiots in this one is again the outsider of the field, Danzig's Odds. Potentially revitalised on sand since returning to sprints he has a nice draw and a light weight.

R8 I like Solarium but at the weights and with the draw, plus the fact she is on a 4-timer I'll oppose today. I really liked the look of Ikati but very disappointed with the price for a horse that has one 3rd place in 5 starts over the distance. Still, maybe everyone like me is prepared to give her another chance based on the recent strong finishes over 1000 and she has a good draw. Eagle High and Smart Girl for the places.

R9 From the 1 box I like First Winter to follow up. I don't quite understand the support for Sacred Sapphire who is unplaced in 4 course attempts, beaten 13 and 21 lengths in her last two visits. Lusikisiki and Scarletto to place and a small e/w on Congregation.

Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)

@Englander - we mostly see things the same again - not sure if that's good or bad - fyi Gav Lerena not riding

Frodo Wrote:

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> @Englander - we mostly see things the same again -
> not sure if that's good or bad - fyi Gav Lerena
> not riding


Mine are also similar to both of you as well, that is probably a bad thing.

PS Englander Ikati has placed over the 1200 over the C & D. (tu)

How do the Goldkeepers go on sand??

Some compelling contenders and likeable long shots (or well priced) –

R1…xxxxxxx………….……..Favourite Daughter
R2…xxxxxxx……………..….xxxxxxxx
R3…Roaming in Rome……..Opening Salvo
R4…xxxxxxx…..…………….Border Patrol
R5…Water Music.………..…For Freluche
R6…Boujis…………..……...Catalonia
R7…Napoleon Dynamite.….Commissionerstreet
R8…Solarium…………....….Raise the Bar
R9…Rivulet…………………..Lusikisiki

With 4 competitive events over 1200m it is worth reviewing the draw history again for races 5,6,7+8.

The low draws, 1-5 are the most favourable, 6+7 are ok whilst 8-11 poor and draw 12 lousy. This pattern has applied for the last 3 years and has become even more pronounced this season (sure there are exceptions…80/20 rule applies).

Race 5 - the 3 top rated horses are understandably the shortest priced runners, Cante Libre, Beautiful Dawn and Rebel Queen, yet they are all poorly drawn.
Not that much to recommend the other runners, Water Music and the ‘untried’ For Freluche make most appeal along with Delta Lioness who now gets a reasonable draw (now Miravar gets a run makes it even more open-MGA tops at VS).

Race 6 – Similar to above, Flying Foo has an okish draw and may have enough early pace to improve her position yet will she then see out the 1200 ? Georgia poorly drawn yet has done well from poor draws before…really tricky race.

Race 7 – Napoleon Dynamite has the figures and a good draw, Prime Mover and Commissionerstreet appeal from good draws.

Race 8 – Solarium, Raise the Bar the Ikati all from good/fair draws

gregbucks Wrote:

---

> How do the Goldkeepers go on sand??


I take it you did not read my essay < - I have no stats, but my feeling is they are ok on the surface - only one that comes to mind right now is Speed Keeper - he's not too bad :S

Frodo Wrote:

---

> gregbucks Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > How do the Goldkeepers go on sand??
>
>
> I take it you did not read my essay < - I have
> no stats, but my feeling is they are ok on the
> surface - only one that comes to mind right now is
> Speed Keeper - he's not too bad :S

Now i have time, client gone....()