CAPE FLYING CHAMPIONSHIPS

PeterD Wrote:

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> A great race. What a Winter confirmed his class
> and his status as our current champion sprinter.
> The filly ran a superb race and ran some 15 lb
> above what she has previously shown.

This is true, except that in her penultimate start which was a handicap, Via Africa won by 10L off an 89. The handicapper raised her by 8 lbs (for a 10L win) to 97.

Her rating to the 2nd horse (Two Tone Rocker 71) would make her 110, or her rating to the 3rd or 4th horses (Rashuli Breeze 74 [-10.75L] or Nips Nugget 75 [-11.5 L]) would make her 120 and Two tone Rocker an 81.

So where the handicapper found a 97, when the lowest possible rating was 110, next lowest was 5th horse 116 and next 2 lowest was 120 shows they probably just guessed.

To confirm, in her next start she againbeat Rashuli Breeze (71) by 6.75 lengths and 2Kg and 5.5kgs WFA.

PeterD Wrote:

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> A great race. What a Winter confirmed his class
> and his status as our current champion sprinter.
> The filly ran a superb race and ran some 15 lb
> above what she has previously shown. The rest were
> nowhere with the 3yo colts disappointing , but Cap
> Alright running his usual game race in 3rd.


I thought you said she won't run a place bet.
I agree with shot and a few others that said that Forbes stopped riding her.

Jack Dash Wrote:

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> PeterD Wrote:
>

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>

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> > A great race. What a Winter confirmed his class
> > and his status as our current champion
> sprinter.
> > The filly ran a superb race and ran some 15 lb
> > above what she has previously shown.
>
> This is true, except that in her penultimate start
> which was a handicap, Via Africa won by 10L off an
> 89. The handicapper raised her by 8 lbs (for a
> 10L win) to 97.
>
> Her rating to the 2nd horse (Two Tone Rocker 71)
> would make her 110, or her rating to the 3rd or
> 4th horses (Rashuli Breeze 74 [-10.75L] or Nips
> Nugget 75 [-11.5 L]) would make her 120 and Two
> tone Rocker an 81.
>
> So where the handicapper found a 97, when the
> lowest possible rating was 110, next lowest was
> 5th horse 116 and next 2 lowest was 120 shows they
> probably just guessed.
>
> To confirm, in her next start she againbeat
> Rashuli Breeze (71) by 6.75 lengths and 2Kg and
> 5.5kgs WFA.


if you knew ur handicapping rules you would know that a horse can only be given 8 pounds for winning a handicap..irrelevant of what it achieves..thats where they got the 97 from

I based my pre-race rating of VA on her Southern Cross win which I made 100. Her earlier races where she outclassed the competition I found hard to rate. Clearly I underestimated the value of that form, and her true ability that was shown on Saturday.

PeterD Wrote:

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> I based my pre-race rating of VA on her Southern
> Cross win which I made 100. Her earlier races
> where she outclassed the competition I found hard
> to rate. Clearly I underestimated the value of
> that form, and her true ability that was shown on
> Saturday.

Yes. We have to question the integrity of a system that insists on artificial caps. It's unreasonable to expect people to drill down into the form of horse to see whether each rating is on merit, or capped by a rule.

There are numerous reason not cap, some I can think of are lack of transparency, disadvantaging real handicappers, undervaluing form of whole races and horses, and affecting the breed. Also, it forms holes in the long handicap and sometimes causes nasty domino effects.

Still, as a punter I should pray for more crappy rules....what would we do without them?

@ Jack Dash - Royal Zulu Warrior comes to mind. He went into the Lebelo with an MR of 87. (Sporting Post had an AR rating of 100).

Mac Wrote:

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> @ Jack Dash - Royal Zulu Warrior comes to mind. He
> went into the Lebelo with an MR of 87. (Sporting
> Post had an AR rating of 100).

Yes I remember that well. I was a guest (non-voting) participant on the panel that reviewed those rules before they got cemented into law by the NHA. I remember digging in against what I thought was a one-sided protectionist perspective.

You may imagine how aggravated I was when one of those who hammered the caps in came out weeks later with a unraced 4yo who won and was capped at 70 as per the rule just voted in. I think I was called a "purist". It amused me that no trainer in a top 30 position was involved, so the views were all for rewarding failure. It was a good fight but it seemed that delivery and performance are not the bottom line, rather cronies cornering power and making rules which suit them...well that's my jaundiced view anyway.

mr hawaii Wrote:

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> Chave has never raced 1000m .. but Cormack said
> 1600m too far last when he ran on strong..
> interesting

Sean Cormack has dramatically reassessed Chave De Oura, explaining: “This was way too short for him. Maybe I was a bit hasty saying he didn’t stay after the Guineas. Six furlongs to a mile looks his trip and the Greyville Guineas is made for him.”

perhaps they should have watched the replay of the Guineas before calling him a sprinter -

should have taken a chance in the Derby rather than this on the Guineas run ..