Scottsville Saturday 26th May

pirates Wrote:

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> pity lonesome dove is scratched she is touted by
> in the know merchants to be better than soft
> falling rain

Ja it's a pity. Would have liked to see her in the flesh.

the connections hold lonesome dove in high regard, looking at very big things with the horse

All the pace is drawn low to middle in the big sprint imo

i like What a winter

Not being a regular follower of racing at the 'goat track' - I'm interested to know if anybody has an opinion on the effect of the draws down the straight; I seem to have picked up that the general consensus is that inside draws are preferred (from Mike Bass), but the stats in Computaform does not really back that up:

Over 1200m:

Draw 1 - 8.57 % winners
Draw 3 - 13.7 %winners
Draw 15 - 12 % winners

I'm not sure if these figures hold true for both outside and inside tracks (or are 1200's run around the turn on the inside track) :S:S

how many years does the stat go back? maybe years ago it was more even but its definatley favours the inside now..and alot of horses drawn to the middle come over to the inside anyway

Franny to show them she is the best 2yr old sprinter in the country

Not sure how many years it goes back, but most of the inside draw percentages are based on 175 races - so can't go back that far?

But I assume that there would be a difference in the percentages (not shown in the stats) between firm. good and soft going and also maybe the time of year

All I'm trying to point out is that according to these stats 12% (6/50) of horses drawn in gate 15 won their races over the 1200 - compared to about 14% (24/175) drawn in gate 3 - granted the sample for those winning from gate 3 is much larger than those from gate 15 - not sure if this indicates that the draw bias is maybe over-emphasized

if Kings Temptress improves, which she should, is Franny a big runner?? not gonna include her in my exotics....

Any news on the first time trip to eden?
I heard a small whisper that she's very good apparently
And a little birdie told me to have a nice win bet.
Any advice frm the clanners?

I can only speak on the Medallion. A lot of suspect form in this race - even Cape Royal. I will only include horses that have Feature form. Just spoke to my trainer and joc - Contador is very, very well! Put up superb last work yesterday and has come on quite a bit from his last outing. Do not leave him out of anything. I will be on course and enjoy whatever this sport throws at me tomorrow!

All the best Homer hope he wins and makes up for the stipes screw up the last time